With Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors beginning yet another crescendo, the New York Knicks’ lack of tradeable first-round picks are once again front-and-center. That’s fair. One thing, however, must be made abundantly clear: If the Knicks fail to land Giannis, it’s not because they traded for Mikal Bridges—or even how much they gave up for him.
To be certain, it is not disingenuous to harp on the first-round equity surrendered for New York’s wing as Giannis speculation swirls. It needs to be mentioned. The Knicks cannot trade a single outright first-round pick until the offseason. That matters.
But so does the context of their situation.
We can’t compare the Knicks’ outbound draft picks to other packages
As the New York Post’s Stefan Bondy recently wrote, the general sentiment around the league is that the Knicks do not have the draft capital to rival other teams’ offers for Giannis, because they gave up control over six first-rounders to bring in Bridges. While this is technically true, it makes the mistake of presuming all draft picks are created equal. They’re not.
Let’s say the Knicks have all of their own first-rounders to offer for Giannis. Their package is undeniably more intriguing than it is right now, but it’s not like those picks were going to have a ton of value.
New York was good before it traded for Bridges. It would have remained good without him. It would get even better with Giannis in the fold. Ipso facto: The team’s own draft picks do not—and would not—forecast as high-end lottery tickets.
Just look at the initial leg of the Bridges trade. Two of the first-round picks have already conveyed to the Brooklyn Nets. They checked in at No. 19 (Nolan Traore), and No. 26 (Ben Saraf).
Most of New York’s other first-rounders don’t project to be much better. It is once again contending for a top-five record, a reality that isn’t immediately changing—with or without Giannis.
Draft selections in 2030 and beyond are more tantalizing. Yet, those out years get you only so far when used as primary assets. They do not help the Bucks, specifically, for some time. The Jon Horst-led front office probably understands it won’t even be the regime making (or trading) those picks.
Milwaukee has every reason to gravitate toward offers built around higher-upside first-rounders (like those owned by Atlanta), and blue-chip youngsters around whom it can build. Even if the Knicks had all of their own first-rounders, they wouldn’t be able to offer either of those things.
Don’t blame the Mikal Bridges trade if the Knicks fail to get Giannis
The other part in all of this: salaries.
Bridges was on the books for $23.3 million at the time of his trade to the Knicks. This made it easier for them to bag him without giving up any players of consequence. That is ultimately why they conceded so many picks for him, as well. The actual players shipped to Brooklyn—Bojan Bogdanovic, Mamadi Diakite, Shake Milton—did not have any standalone value.
New York could never follow the same blueprint with Giannis. He is making $54.1 million this year. There is zero chance the Knicks would have that much in expiring contracts on the books. No matter the alternate universe in which we’re operating, netting him always would have required giving up two or more key rotation players.
Would having first-round picks in their coffers have helped in their inevitable, if not ongoing, pursuit of Giannis? Without question. But would it make them favorites to actually land him? Not even close.