Mitchell Robinson’s future with the New York Knicks is officially more confusing than ever. Between his clear-cut value to the team, scattershot health, and upcoming free agency, he is equal parts too valuable to move, and also an obvious trade candidate.
This is to say: Leon Rose and the rest of New York’s front office have their work cut out for them ahead of the February 5 deadline.
Yes, Mitchell Robinson is a trade candidate
People will attempt to oversimplify this matter by arguing that the Knicks should just keep Robinson, and address his future over the summer. It isn’t that easy.
Unrestricted free agency is a wild card. It only takes one team to give Robinson more money than New York is uncomfortable shelling out. And the number that renders the Knicks uncomfortable may be lower than we think. Even matching his $13 million salary from this year might prove prohibitive given how expensive the core will get next season.
Beyond that, for as promising as New York looks, it absolutely needs a trade, if only to improve upon its overall depth. Unless the Knicks are window-shopping exclusively in the bargain bin, Robinson’s salary could be critical to making the math work on any deal.
With just under $150,000 separating them from the second apron, they cannot take back more money than they send out. Assuming Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges (trade-eligible February 1), Karl-Anthony Towns, and Josh Hart are all off the table, that leaves Robinson as the only other player earning more than $5.5 million.
Rest assured, the Knicks are factoring this into their trade-deadline calculus. They almost assuredly cannot pull off the rumored reunion with Donte DiVincenzo, and keep Robinson. They definitely cannot retain him if Dennis Schroder emerges as a target, like many expect.
Basically, any trade for anyone making as much or more than Robinson’s $13 million will probably have to include Robinson himself.
This does not mean the Knicks can afford to trade Robinson
New York shouldn’t consider Robinson untouchable by any means, particularly if the right player comes along. But the bar for that “right player” has to be high.
For all of his faults and foibles, Robinson remains mission critical to what the Knicks do. His offensive rebounding is historically good, and an efficient driver of half-court scoring output. Though his defense has ebbed and flowed this year, he’s starting to look more like himself in recent games. Even when he’s not at his best, the sheer enormity of his frame serves the Knicks well against larger centers, and dual-big frontcourts.
It is unequivocally frightening that the Knicks are this dependent on someone who can’t play both ends of back-to-backs, is forever at risk of missing large chunks of time, and has yet to log 25 minutes in a single game this season. There are hints that Robinson could be ready for a heavier workload, but New York will never escape waiting-for-the-other-shoe-to-drop mode with him.
Yet, even knowing all this, he cannot be treated as trade-machine fodder. He is too good to be viewed as matching salary for whatever, and whoever. He’s also not enough of a sure thing for the Knicks to shut down the idea of moving him at all.
This dilemma is not new. New York was facing it entering the season. In that sense, nothing’s changed. But the clock is ticking faster now. The trade deadline is closer. Ditto for his free agency.
Above all, the Knicks are closer than ever to sniffing another championship. So while the problem remains the same, the stakes on finding a resolution have never been higher.