Mitchell Robinson is currently on pace to be the most impactful single-season offensive rebounder in NBA history. And boy, are the New York Knicks reaping the rewards.
The 27-year-old big man is grabbing 36.7 percent of his teammates’ misses when he’s on the court. That would shatter the previous record, which was set by Steven Adams last year, when he boarded 21.4 percent of the Houston Rockets’ misfires.
Offensive rebounding, of course, is up around the league. Crashing the glass off your own team’s misses is one of the hottest trends. You expect to see some wild individual numbers as a result.
Robinson’s presence on the offensive glass is a revelation even by these standards. His 36.7 percent offensive rebounding rate is more than seven points higher than this season’s No. 2 Clint Capela, who checks in at 29.1 percent.
The question of sustainability naturally creeps into this discussion. Robinson has always been a great offensive rebounder, but the best ever? Is that realistic?
Mitchell Robinson is fueling the Knicks’ offense
Even though Robinson’s presence on the offensive boards is talked about ad nauseam, it’s seldom appreciated for the impact it has on the overall product. The Knicks are scoring 16.5 points more per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. That is currently the highest swing on the team.
Second-chance opportunities are also among New York’s bread and butter. Its first-chance offense rates in the top eight, but when you’re launching so many three-pointers, you’re subject to a certain variance. The Knicks are no different.
Crashing the offensive glass helps keep the product on more event footing. The Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz are the only teams with a higher offensive rebounding rate on missed threes. Robinson is absolutely a part of that. New York is boarding 50 percent of its missed triples when he’s in the game.
To that end, the Knicks are averaging more than double the number of second-chance possessions with Robinson. And the team is more efficient scoring off these opportunities with him, too—in no small part thanks to him doing a better job of kicking rebounds out to the perimeter after grabbing them.
One thing is standing in Robinson’s way of history
Sustainability isn’t the concern in Robinson’s quest for history. That would be availability.
He has already missed half of the team’s games, and New York has made it abundantly clear he’ll be on a load-management plan all season. This will inherently repress his minutes, and he needs to log 1,500 total of them to qualify for the offensive rebounding leaderboard.
That is…a tall order. Robinson has only cleared the 1,500-minute plateau twice, and not since 2022-23. Though head coach Mike Brown recently hinted that his center’s minutes could ramp up, it isn’t clear what that means.
Frankly, it might not matter. Robinson is 1,403 minutes short of the qualifications. Even if he plays in every one of the Knicks’ remaining games—which we know he won’t—he’d need to average over 20 minutes per contest. That’s about four more than right now.
The calculus changes if Robinson averages around 25 minutes. He could afford to miss 14 more games if that’s the case. Considering New York has Towns, and Robinson hasn’t hit 25 minutes per game since 2022-23, this feels like a stretch as well.
Nobody should care so long as Robinson is available in the playoffs. He doesn’t need to officially go down as the most impactful single-season offensive rebounder. We’ve seen enough, for long enough, to know he’s capable of being exactly that.