As NBA teams continue to grapple with the fallout of draft-lottery reform, the New York Knicks may want to use this period of uncertainty to maximize the value of their 2033 first-round pick.
Trading selections so far off into the future is typically taboo for teams in the reigning champs’ position. The Knicks do not control the rights to their own first-round against until 2030, and while they might be well-positioned to contend for the next couple of years, their relative dearth of long-term prospects who can replenish the pipeline leaves them in a sticky big-picture situation.
With that said, this logic rang truer under the old lottery system. The new one doesn’t give teams as much control over where their draft picks land. And as Yossi Gozlan of the Third Apron recently pointed out when discussing what the Cleveland Cavaliers gave up for Peyton Watson, this potentially lowers the value of distant first-rounders.
Technically, it’s too early to say for sure. Many talking heads and typey-typers have speculated first-round picks are more valuable under the new system. That includes yours truly.
Nobody can know for sure. Not yet, anyway. That uncertainty is part of the point. The Knicks could probably extract real value for their 2033 first-round pick, not to mention their 2030 and 2032 swaps, right now. That may not remain accurate down the line.
The 3-2-1 lottery system complicates the trade value of draft picks
For anyone unfamiliar with the new lottery system, here’s a quick and dirty rundown of what you need to know for the purposes of this discussion:
- The lottery has expanded from 14 to 16 teams.
- Teams with the three worst records now have a 5.4 percent chance at getting the No. 1 pick, down from 14 percent.
- The remaining seven teams who do not make the play-in tournament each have an 8.1 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
- Each of the four No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds have a 5.4 percent crack at the first-overall pick (Yes, that’s the same as the bottom-three squads.)
- The two losers from the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in games each get a 2.7 percent shot at the No. 1 pick.
This distribution of odds could diminish the value of holding other teams’ draft picks. Too many squads will have an equal chance of bagging an elite first-round selection.
On top of that, you risk seeing teams who have traded first-round picks deliberately lowering your odds. Let’s use the Milwaukee Bucks as an example.
Since their 2027 first-rounder is headed to New Orleans or Atlanta, they don’t have to worry about entering the bottom three, otherwise known as the “relegation zone.” In fact, they will actually increase the value of the pick they already traded if they actively try to win.
The Knicks’ 2033 first-round pick will never be more valuable than it is now
Prospective trade partners can easily talk themselves into the Knicks being much worse but still mediocre seven years into the future. That is the new sweet spot under the current system.
Even if you think the Knicks’ first-rounder is less valuable using the new rules, the lotto format is only guaranteed to remain in place for the next three years. At that point, the league may contemplate switching to “The Wheel.” That proposal is all sorts of complicated, but overall, it would give teams even less control over where they are drafting, thereby diminishing how much they’re worth in trades more than they’ve (potentially) been devalued now.
Either way, by this time next year, the Knicks’ future first-rounders may not be as appealing. And while this doesn’t mean they have to trade the 2033 selection, if they’re dead set on maximizing, on extending, the current championship window, it makes sense to at least gauge what they can get for attaching this pick to the outgoing salary they have to offer.
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