Mixed emotions abound when it comes to the NBA likely reforming and expanding the draft lottery. If you’re a New York Knicks fan who lives in the moment and wants them to swing a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo or another high-impact addition, however, you should be rooting for the latest rumors to be true, as it would immediately strengthen their offseason trade packages.
The Association’s Board of Governors will be voting on draft-lottery reform at the end of May. According to Shams Charania, the scenario gaining the most momentum would do all of the following:
- Expand the lottery to 18 teams: The 10 that miss the play-in, and the eight that qualify.
- Bottom 10 teams each have an 8 percent chance of moving up, with the remaining 20 percent split among the eight play-in squads.
- All 18 spots would be drawn as part of the lottery.
How, exactly, does this beef up New York’s, frankly, inevitable pursuit of Giannis or another big name this summer? I’m so glad…to assume that you asked.
The Knicks’ first-round picks and swaps have more valueÂ
Flatter lottery odds are a spoilsport for the truly terrible teams, but they are a boon for squads who exist closer to the middle. The most popular proposal currently increases the range out outcomes for any draft.Â
This is a potential hack for buyers willing to trade distant first-round picks. That includes the Knicks. They will be permitted to deal their 2033 first this summer, as well as swaps in 2030 and 2032. These selections already have appeal to outside eyes, because they’re so far into the future, acquiring teams can convince themselves that New York will be on the downswing, and in position to convey a quality pick.Â
Yet, much of this calculus is prided on the Knicks reverting to awful within the next few years. While that’s not necessarily a fool’s bet, it’s lightyears from a sure thing.Â
The appeal of these unprotected swaps and pick soars within a flatter lottery. Acquiring teams no longer need to cross their fingers for the Knicks to be a bottom-feeder. They could technically be a playoff squad and still send out a spiffy selection.
For example’s sake, let’s assume New York finishes eight in the East during the 2031-32 season. If the new proposal evenly distributes the final 20 percent of lottery odds to all eight play-in teams, here’s what the odds of the Knicks having a top-seven pick would look like:
- No. 1 pick: 2.5 percent
- Top-two pick: 4.9 percent
- Top-three pick: 7.3 percent
- Top-four pick: 9.6 percent
- Top-five pick: 11.9 percent
- Top-six pick: 14.1 percent
- Top-seven pick: 16.2 percent
A 16-plus-percent crack at a top-seven pick will get plenty of teams thinking. And mind you, any front office that thinks the Knicks will be a concrete lotto team will see more value in ownership of their selections. Under the rumored proposal, if you finish with a bottom-10 record, you have a 34.1 percent chance of landing a top-five pick.Â
Risk-taking could be the NBA’s next trade-market inefficiency
The upshot of all this is teams will pearl-clutch their own first-rounders harder than ever. Especially when it comes to shipping out multiple of them.Â
Risk-reward profiles for blockbuster trades will be more complex than ever. The Knicks themselves are already on the wrong end of one. Their acquisition of Mikal Bridges will look worse if the NBA adopts this version of the draft lottery.
At the same time, New York could jump the line over a handful of suitors for Giannis or other big names if it operates with the same stomach for long-term danger. This isn’t to say the Leon Rose-led front office should be reckless. The wrong move could set the franchise back eons.Â
Still, if the Knicks believe they’re one swing away from ending their championship drought, dangling the rights to first-rounders in 2030 (swap), 2032 (swap) and 2033 (outright) under the proposed lottery would be a much more enticing offer than it is relative to the current rules. And depending on how this postseason push ends, this is absolutely food for thought.