Jayson Tatum is expected to make his season debut less than 11 months after tearing his right Achilles. The New York Knicks are already being left behind in the “Eastern Conference favorite” discourse as a result.
The Boston Celtics listed Tatum as “questionable” ahead of their Friday night tilt against the Dallas Mavericks. Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Connor has already declared them the “clear” favorites to come out of the East and reach the NBA Finals as a result. He isn’t alone, either.
In fact, the “Knicks as East favorites” chatter started dying down long before confirmation of Tatum’s return.
New York no longer has near-consensus backing to come out of the East
Preseason odds pegged either the Knicks or Cleveland Cavaliers as the East squad most likely to make the NBA Finals. Given the latter’s spotty playoff track record, New York quickly emerged as the trendy, near-consensus pick to win the conference.
Then, the Detroit Pistons happened. And then, the Knicks spiraled after winning the NBA Cup. And then, the Cavs flipped the injured Darius Garland for James Harden. Now…this.
To be absolutely transparent, Boston started usurping New York in certain circles a few weeks ago. It comes with having sole ownership of second place in the East.
Tatum’s return is merely accelerating that rise. And the Celtics are not just crawling ahead of the Knicks. They are now the odds-on favorites to come out of the East.
The Knicks are officially being undervalued
Boston deserves the anecdotal and betting-odds flowers it’s receiving. Everyone had it pegged for a gap year while Tatum rehabbed his Achilles injury. Flirting with a 55-win pace instead is a middle finger to us all.
Still, while the Celtics are beyond impressive, perception of the Knicks is veering too far away from reality. Forget about whether they should be East favorites. They are now third or fourth, in most spots, to emerge from the conference. And after beginning the season with top-four championship odds relative to the entire league, they are now frequently listed closer to 10th than fifth.
Degrees of skepticism are well-warranted. The Knicks are perhaps the Association’s most Jekyll-and-Hyde contender. Key players were still talking about the need for a grace period roughly 60 games into the season. Depending on the night, this roster looks like a conference dynasty-in-waiting, or what everyone thought the Charlotte Hornets were supposed to be.
Yet, despite all of the muck and rubble and general uncertainty, New York has the profile of a title threat. Not only does it rank in the top 10 of offense and defense (yes, on defense, too), but it joins the Pistons as the only two teams maintaining top-10 placements at both ends of the floor when they play other top-10 squads.
This doesn’t happen by chance. There are specific micro strengths and weaknesses that demand full attention, but the macro vitals of these Knicks borders on elite. They check just about every “Are you a contender box?” imaginable, including the most important one. (Do you have a top-10 superstar?)
That doesn’t mean they should be auto-favorites to win it all, or even to come out of the East. It does mean the pendulum in the wake of Tatum’s return, maybe even before it, is erroneously swinging too far in the wrong direction.