Despite being considered one of the NBA’s inner-circle championship contenders, the New York Knicks may be brushing up against a harsh reality: They’re not there yet.
Nobody tell owner James Dolan. He sounds like someone who will take a hatchet to the roster if it fails to reach the Finals.
Still, we can’t ignore what’s staring us right in the face. New York’s post-NBA-Cup has been brutal. It has posted an unspectacular 7-7 record, while notching the league’s second-worst defense during this span.
And yet, if history is any indication, it isn’t the Knicks’ most recent rough patch that should have them worried. Ruts happen, and to their credit, legitimate and correctable excuses abound. Instead, it’s New York’s performance in wins that should have us—and the front office—questioning its championship mettle.
The Knicks do not currently profile as a title team during their victories
According to Cleaning The Glass, which filters out garbage time, the Knicks have the 11th-best net rating in wins. If this seems unimpressive, that’s because it is unimpressive. If nothing else, it is unbecoming of the typical title hopeful.
Each of the past 14 NBA champions have ranked inside the top 10 of point differential during wins. The vast majority of this group has finished seventh or better on the margin-of-victory ladder. Meanwhile, the last squad to hang a banner that didn’t rank inside the top 10 was the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks, who finished 18th in this category.
This is not one of those cherry-picked observations. It’s right up there with championship rosters generally needing to churn out a top-10 offense and defense. For their part, the Knicks are only holding up one end of the bargain. And you know which one.
Using the same timespan, just three champions since 2010-11—Dallas (2011), Miami Heat (2013), and Denver Nuggets (2023)—have failed to spit out a top-10 regular-season offense and defense. Of these three, the Mavs missed the offensive cutoff by one spot (No. 11), the Heat missed the defensive threshold by three slots (No. 13), and the Nuggets whiffed entirely on the defensive criteria, ending up 26th.
This is not a death knell for the Knicks but it matters
Those 2023 champion Nuggets might be a pretty good analog for the Knicks. Both of their primary cornerstones, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, aren’t known for their defense. It’s the same story with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Even though they finished in the bottom five of defensive efficiency, Denver clearly had another gear to reach. And it did. Once again, the same can be said for the Knicks. We have seen them ratchet up the defense by fielding certain lineups.
Contrary to those Nuggets, as well as many other champions, New York is developing a nasty habit of struggling against the middle of the pack. The Knicks have the second-best net rating against top-10 teams, and versus bottom-10 squads. When facing rosters in the 11-to-20 range, however, they are 14th in net rating, and just three games over .500.
Sacrificing wins in the name of experimentation and developmental reps is understandable—admirable, even. The Knicks aren’t doing as much of the latter anymore. Rattling off comfortable victories is also part of emphasizing minutes for the kids. Lower-leverage situations are bread-and-butter opportunities for unproven names.
Although New York ranks 26th in total crunch-time minutes, it is just 16th on the season in the number of low-leverage possessions played, per PBP Stats. Equally notable, the Knicks’ 14 double-digit victories trail teams like Denver, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and even Toronto. They also only have one double-digit win since the NBA Cup.
To what end this matters, or is potentially damning, will lay in the eye of the beholder. The season is long. Things change. The Knicks could see their statistical profile inch closer to championship material by season’s end.
Whether that can happen without a trade is debatable. Less debatable is what will happen if things don’t change: New York probably won’t make it out of the East, let alone win it all, and offseason roster turnover will go from a possibility to an inevitability.