Mike Brown wants the New York Knicks to play faster this season, while also having Jalen Brunson get more reps away from the ball. That sounds great, as well as long overdue. It is also a fundamental shift that could see the Knicks commit a bunch of turnovers.
Adapting to new styles takes time. The crux of what Brown is pushing for—a speedier offense that doesn’t rely too heavily on Brunson—represents a dramatic departure from how this New York core typically plays.
The Knicks ranked 29th last season in the average length of their offensive possessions, according to Inpredictable. No player in the league, meanwhile, had the ball in his hands more than Brunson.
Some variation of this slower, heliocentric model has been New York’s guiding offensive principle for the past three years. Breaking from this mold is possible, despite what so many seem to believe. That doesn’t mean it’ll be pretty.
Moving Brunson off the ball will force other players outside their comfort zone
Setting up Brunson for easier looks at the rim or, more likely, wide-open catch-and-shoot threes is an objectively awesome vision. Whether the Knicks have personnel to put him in those positions is a separate matter.
Brunson was the team’s only player last season who placed among the top 50 in time spent on-ball. Josh Hart was next up, and he finished 87th. New additions like Jordan Clarkson and Malcolm Brogdon will give New York more on-ball optionality, but neither of them ranked in the top-90 of on-ball volume last season.
Even if certain Knicks get used to more featured touches, this doesn’t mean they’ll be comfortable teeing it up for others. Of the team’s six most-used players last year, OG Anunoby and Deuce McBride were the only two who ranked in the 70th percentile or better of bad pass turnovers per 75 possessions, according to BBall Index. And that might say more about their relative lack of live-dribble playmaking more than anything else.
Distilling more of the offense down to drive-and-kick scenarios might help, but even that’s foreign to New York’s personnel. Brunson, not surprisingly, was the sole rotationplayer to post an above-average passout and assist rate on drives.
Playing faster will inevitably result in more turnovers
Remove the Knicks’ general lack of higher-volume on-ball experience among the supporting cast from the equation, and they will still be left to grapple with the uptick in giveaways that can seldom be avoided when playing at a faster pace.
There is a clear historical correlation between the speed at which a team operates, and the number of times they botch possessions. Look at just last year, just two of the teams who ranked in the top 10 of transition frequency also placed in the top 10 of turnover rate. And only three finished inside the top 15.
To Brown’s credit, the Sacramento Kings landed in the top 10 of turnover rate during all of his seasons at the helm. But this brings us back to on-ball decision-making experience. Sacramento always employed at least two players used to working in that capacity, with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The Knicks do not have the same luxury.
Which isn’t to say New York must abandon Brown’s plan to play faster, and with a lighter reliance on Brunson. It’s more so to say that there’s a chance, if not a strong likelihood, things could get worse before they get better.