Poll any number of New York Knicks fans, bloggers, podcasters, and media members, and virtually every one of them will agree that Tom Thiobdeau is coaching for his job during the NBA playoffs. But what if he's actually not?
The Sacramento Kings' recent head coaching "search" serves as a reminder that Thibs' job is potentially safer than consensus says. "Search" is in quotations, because, well, these are the Sacramento Kings. New general manager Scott Perry definitely had the agency to hire whomever he wanted, and totally chose interim head coach Doug Christie because he wanted to, and absolutely wasn't directed to do so by owner Vivek Ranadive.
This overload of tongue-in-cheek font isn't meant as a slight to Christie. The hire is justifiable on its face. Sacramento played better under him than it did to start the season with former head coach Mike Brown. As a general rule of thumb, though, it is always, always, ALWAYS necessary to question the Kings' decision-making process
We may never know how many other candidates Sacramento interviewed. Perry said he received a ton of interest in the gig, but that's a given when only 30 NBA head coaching jobs exist. Plus, fielding calls is different from following up on them. As Jake Fischer of The Stein Line recently reported, Perry was tapped to replace Monte McNair in part because of his willingness to "collaborate more successfully" with Ranadive, who has shown "tremendous" support for Christie. It stands to reason, then, that the Kings did not exactly cast the widest of nets as part of this search.
That doesn't make this the wrong decision. Christie has accomplished enough this past season to deserve a chance. More to the point, the Kings are looking to push forward with their current core. That means they had to ask themselves: Who among all available candidates is a talented enough tactician and leader to extract noticeably better results from the exact same personnel?
This is a question that could dovetail nicely with the Knicks' 2025 offseason. Because they just might be asking the same one.
Tom Thibodeau's seat seems hot, but is it really?
Falling in the first round to the Detroit Pistons seems like it definitely would have cost Thibs his job. The Knicks no longer need to worry about that. Whether winning this series is enough to guarantee he'll be back next season is a separate matter.
It will not be nearly enough on the surface. New York surrendered control of seven first-round picks over the summer to improve the roster around Jalen Brunson, and wound up winning just one more game this year compared to last. Bowing out in the second round, again, will not constitute progress—not even when it would be at the hands of the reigning-champion Boston Celtics.
"I do think that there's a strong possibility, a solid possibility that changes are coming if [the Knicks] flame out against Detroit or even if they're non-competitive in the second round against the Boston Celtics.
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) April 14, 2025
Earlier this year, somebody asked me about Tom Thibodeau, and I… pic.twitter.com/yQyWQ4i4Fd
And yet, this also raises the question of what exactly constitutes success. Nobody will pick the Knicks to edge out the Celtics in a best-of-seven series. That could mean Thibs' future with the team is fait accompli. If it's not, well, what's the differentiating factor? Does New York need to win two games against Boston? Or push the series to a Game 7? Can the Knicks lose in five games but be competitive, and can that be enough to afford Thibs job security?
The working relationship between Thibs, team president Leon Rose, and the Brunson family looms as a major factor in this discussion. There is real synergy, and history, between the group. Thibs also put pen to paper on a three-year extension this past July.
Above all else, though, the Knicks must believe another coach can squeeze measurably more results from the exact same core. Sure, New York can make some changes. But with no outright first-round picks to trade this summer, and with zero blue-chip prospects on the roster, it'll be hard-pressed to pull off bigger-time moves without obliterating its starting five once more.
Will another head coach be better?
Upgrading from Thibs will not seem like a tall task to many. The list of complaints is that long.
The Knicks continue not to run enough 1-5 pick-and-rolls with Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, even when they up the volume of the action. This team generally doesn't take enough threes. The top players log too many minutes. Thibs doesn't give youngsters adequate time to develop. Too much offensive responsibility is on the shoulders of Brunson. Josh Hart is the emotional heartbeat of this squad, and someone Thibs will overuse to a fault, if not a detriment. The offense in general isn't creative enough, particularly when looking at what happens away from the ball.
Any combination of these can be considered a fireable transgression, provided there is a clear upgrade. And there will obviously be a clear upgrade, because how could there not be? Look what happened to the Cleveland Cavaliers when they traded out J.B. Bickerstaff, now head honcho of the Pistons, for Kenny Atkinson?
Except, it isn't that simple.
Atkinson himself isn't available. Ditto for Erik Spoelstra (Miami Heat). And Ty Lue (Los Angeles Clippers.) And Quin Snyder (Atlanta Hawks).
Does the recently fired Phoenix Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer get more out of this roster? Or former Memphis Grizzlies head honcho Taylor Jenkins? Does a retread such as Jeff Van Gundy, Mike D'Antoni or Terry Stotts do the trick?
How do the Knicks feel about hiring a first-timer, as a team looking to contend with Boston and Cleveland moving forward? Would they give Becky Hammon, head coach of the WNBA's Las Vegas Aces, a shot? What about Heat assistant Chris Quinn? Or Celtics assistant Sam Cassell?
There may, in fact, be an upgrade on the open market. To say it's clear cut, though, underestimates the unknown. It also presupposes this Knicks roster is good enough, as currently constructed, to reach championship heights. That is not a given.
A new head coach cannot pull a viable second advantage creator out of thin air. Nor can they turn Towns into a top-tier backline defensive anchor. Or magic live-dribble playmaking from OG Anunoby.
At this point, unless a surprise name ventures into the fold, or unless the Knicks implode during the remainder of their postseason push, there are no guarantees that whomever might replace Thibs does anything other than distribute more minutes to the bench, and inject more movement and innovation into the offense. Is that enough to turn this team, this exact team, into a legitimate title threat, proving once and for all Thibs put a Toyota Camry body kit and tires on a Ferrari 296 Speciale?
Depending on how the playoffs shake out, we may know soon enough.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.