Knicks odds of landing Giannis improve after Bucks' devastating injury

The future of the Milwaukee Bucks is hazier than ever following the news that Damian Lillard suffered a torn left Achilles. Could their turmoil be the New York Knicks' gain?

Lillard's injury might just sideline him through all of next season, at which point he would not return until 2026-27, his age-36 season. This setback is a stark reminder of how fragile and fleeting NBA title windows have become. And it may also prove to be the driving force behind a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade.

Every other team in the league will show some level of interest if the two-time MVP becomes available. The Knicks are no exception. Their odds of getting him might be even higher than you think.

The question, of course, is whether they can actually pull it off.

Giannis' future seems like it lies outside Milwaukee

While Antetokounmpo has another three seasons left on his deal (with a 2027-28 player option), his future in Milwaukee was already a point of contention before the Lillard injury.

Back in February, ESPN's Shams Charania basically said the 30-year-old would look elsewhere if the Bucks did not show enough during the 2025 NBA playoffs to prove they can be a sustainable long-term winner. That sentiment looms large now, with Milwaukee destined to bow out of its first-round matchup against the Indiana Pacers.

This fire was doused with even more around the start of the playoffs. NBA Insider Chris Haynes noted that he doesn't think Giannis will finish his career on the Bucks.

Granted, this is pretty open-ended. It could be referencing a decision years down the line. But Hayes also went as far as saying Milwaukee might take the initiative and shop Antetokounmpo "if things go sour in the postseason."

Losing Lillard to a career-altering injury qualifies as sour, wouldn't you say?

Knicks were previously betting favorites to trade for Giannis

Plenty of teams other than the Knicks will be placed at the front of the line if and when Antetokounmpo becomes available. That makes sense when comparing their remaining asset stores to the deeper toolboxes of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs, among other teams.

And yet, New York was actually the odds-on favorite to land Giannis earlier this year:

Anyone who rules this out as betting-market drivel needs to take a step back. Superstar trades do not always take place in a vacuum.

Giannis' case will be no different. Whether he asks for out or Milwaukee proactively decides to go in another direction, the team will almost assuredly take his preferences into account. If he has the Knicks at or near the top of his wish list, the Bucks will absolutely listen to what they can and will offer.

This doesn't mean New York can steal Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has Lillard on its roster precisely because the Portland Trail Blazers did not send him to his preferred destination, in the Miami Heat. But they still sent him to a contender he approved.

The trick in these cases is finding a balance. Front offices aren't in the business of accepting noticeably crummier offers just to placate superstars, even if those superstars are franchise icons. Their preferred teams must at least have a viable package that fits with the incumbent organization's new direction. That's where things get complicated for the Knicks.

Can New York build a reasonable trade package for Antetokounmpo?

Figuring out the math behind a Giannis-to-the Knicks trade isn’t especially difficult. He is on the books next season for $54.1 million. New York can match that money using various combinations consisting of as few as two players.

Which raises the question: Who goes out in a prospective Giannis Antetokounmpo trade? The theoretical answer is complicated. Compensation in these instances is usually shaped by draft-pick equity. The more first-rounders you send out, the less painful the combination of players leaving stands to be. 

This logic can help out a lot of possible suitors. The Knicks aren’t one of them. 

Right now, they cannot trade a guaranteed first-round pick this summer. Their top draft assets are a 2026 first-round pick from the Washington Wizards, which turns into two seconds if it lands inside the top 10, and first-round swap rights in 2026, 2030 and 2032. 

That isn’t a whole lot to work with in general, let alone when looking at this through a Giannis Antetokounpo trade lens. That dictates the Knicks build the meat and potatoes of their package around actual players. But another problem comes into play here. 

Teams aren’t looking to remain competitive when shipping out one of the five best players alive—unless, of course, said team’s front office is run by Nico Harrison. Names like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns won’t catch the attention of squads speeding their way toward a rebuild.

Without Giannis, the Bucks seem to fall in that category. Yet their own draft-pick situations looms as a potential twist. They do not uniformly control their own first-rounder until 2031. Other teams have first dibs on their next six first-rounders, including this year’s pick. That could prompt them to prioritize talent capable of preserving relevance now.

Conversely, though, Milwaukee could insist on bagging enough draft picks, along with a blue-chip prospect, so that it’s free to properly start over. New York cannot even begin to meet those demands on its own.

Other teams will have to get involved—and not just to help with any salary-matching. The Knicks would need pick-and-prospect-flush facilitators ready to lucratively compensate the Bucks in exchange for the opportunity to land Anunoby, Bridges, Towns, or Josh Hart. 

Those suitors no doubt exist. But do they exist to the extent New York can cobble together a proposal that convinces Milwaukee to bite over others? And even if the Knicks can pull it off, should they? 

When you consider the need for picks in addition to players, there’s virtually no way they exit Giannis talks without trading two, or even three, of Anunoby, Bridges, Hart and Towns. Antetokounmpo is an active all-time great, but is he worth hollowing out an already-shallow rotation? Debatable. The Knicks would need to have other depth-creating moves lined up, or hash out how to take players other than Giannis back as part of their package(s).

In the end, the Damian Lillard injury does, in fact, raise the odds of New York acquiring Giannis. Except, this rings true for pretty much every team, by virtue of Antetokounmpo seeming more potentially available than ever. 

Superstars win championships. Whatever hoops New York must jump through should probably be deemed worth it. At the same time, the sheer number of these hoops is daunting. 

So many things have to break juuust right for the Knicks to have a viable Giannis package. And even then, there’s no guarantee it’s good enough relative to others, or that the front office will travel great and complicated lengths to swing a trade which, in all likelihood, diminishes their depth, asset chest, and margin for error even further.

Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.