Given that Mitchell Robinson has no timeline for a return from a broken right pinky finger, the New York Knicks should be extra grateful the San Antonio Spurs forced a Game 7 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. If nothing else, it buys their injured big man additional rest.
In the likely event Robinson won't suit up or be close 100 percent for the Finals, though, the Knicks' rooting interest in the Western Conference Finals is no longer up for debate. They should want, with every fiber of their being, the Spurs to win.
This was arguable not too long ago. The case for wanting to face the Thunder, in fact, wrote itself.
Oklahoma City's second- and third-best ball-handlers, Ajay Mitchell (calf) and Jalen Williams (hamstring), are banged up. Mitchell has not suited up since Game 3. J-Dub returned in Game 6, and looked like a shell of himself. The burden on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander right now is absurd. Light years from full strength, the Thunder's offense feels sloggy, predictable, and eminently stoppable.
Faced with the prospect of soldiering on without Robinson up their sleeve, the Knicks’ calculus has changed.
The Spurs are a better matchup for the Knicks if they don’t have Mitchell Robinson
Crossing your fingers for the chance to go up against Victor Wembanyama is counterintuitive. The way he impacts shots without even being near the ball is one-of-one stuff.
Still, despite his size, he is not imposingly strong. And after him, the Spurs are not exceptionally big. They have Luke Kornet coming off the bench, but he’s not nearly mobile enough to keep up with an attacking Karl-Anthony Towns or OG Anunoby, let alone Jalen Brunson.
New York might actually have an easier time guarding Wemby than accounting for both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein in Oklahoma City’s frontcourt. Hartenstein, in particular, packs a physical punch on the glass. The same could be said for Jaylin Williams. That will extract a toll on Towns.
It will impact Anunoby, too. Mike Brown will have no choice but to downsize for stretches without Robinson. Guarding Wemby on the perimeter or dives to the basket is no picnic, but it’s not nearly as physically taxing as dealing with Hartenstein’s shoulders. And if the Knicks save their OG-at-the-5 minutes strictly for Kornet’s floor time, then Anunoby should be able to feast at the offensive end.
San Antonio is also more likely to downsize itself than Oklahoma City. We have seen the Spurs go with Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson, or Julian Champagnie as the de facto 5. That bodes well for the Knicks, if only because it ensures they aren’t giving up the size advantage.
The Karl-Anthony Towns factor
Towns’ defensive success against Wemby this season shouldn’t be overlooked, either.
Through the two regular-season meetings for which there’s tracking data (so, no NBA Cup), he guarded the reigning Defensive Player of the Year more than anyone else on New York’s roster. The Spurs as a team on these plays averaged just 0.81 points per possession—a ghastly low number.
The Knicks cannot bank on that trend repeating itself. But Towns’ general enormity and physicality is a viable counter to Wemby’s size and stature. Even if he gets cooked by the 7’4” alien, his passing and bulldozing drives can still cause problems for him at the other end. And while the Spurs could just put one of their wings on Towns, New York has gotten much better at countering those gimmicks.
With the way that the Thunder are playing right now, it’s tempting to name them as the Knicks’ preferred opponent. And hey, if Robinson were healthy, perhaps they would be. But he’s not, so they’re not. Truthfully, they probably never would be.
Which means it’s business as it always would be for the Knicks entering Game 7. They are, for the time being, Spurs fans.
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