Historically speaking, the New York Knicks’ roster continuity bodes incredibly well for their title defense. Early on, however, their continuity could make life harder. Not only do opponents know how they want to operate, but the Knicks are up against a reloaded Eastern Conference they’ve yet to fully scout.
James Edwards III of The Athletic astutely pointed out and wrote about this after New York's opening-night loss. And he's right.
Even after losing Mitchell Robinson, nearly 90 percent of last season’s minutes remain on the current roster. Apart from the New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs, no other squad rivals that mark.
When you just won a title and your core isn’t over the hill, this qualifies as a great thing. New isn’t always better. Existing chemistry is a feature; not a bug.
But familiarity works both ways.
The Knicks offense won’t surprise as many teams
Defenses know what the Knicks offense want to do. Like Edwards explained, they have a year’s worth of tape on Mike Brown’s approach. We saw as much in their opening-night loss to the Philadelphia 76ers
After a less-than-stellar start, Philly’s defense started weeding out and cutting off a bunch of New York’s off-ball actions. LeBron James and Joel Embiid, in particular, knew which spots to cover up. The Sixers eventually went to Embiid-on-Josh Hart. They knew when Mikal Bridges would bail out before the rim. They played a part in coaxing Jalen Brunson into heliocentric leanings down the stretch, when he attempted all three of the Knicks’ crunch-time looks.
The end result: a 98 offensive rating that would have ranked as New York’s seventh-lowest mark all of last season.
This isn’t tantamount to a death knell for the Knicks. They wil be fine. Karl-Anthony Towns will not spend every game in foul trouble. Someone other than Towns, Hart, and Jose Alvarado will show a pulse from three. Their 98 offensive rating from Tuesday night is awful
Still, this is a hurdle the Knicks will need to overcome. And that’s in addition to having a target on their backs. Opponents always get up to play at Madison Square Garden. On the heels of winning a title, New York will face that same energy darn near every game—even when they’re not at home.
New York faces a learning curve in the East, too
That’s not all, either. In addition to teams having heavily scouted the reigning champs and having a bigger incentive to play their best, the Knicks are working under the exact opposite circumstances.
Never mind worrying about a banner-year hangover. Jalen Brunson and company are not wired that way in the slightest. But the Knicks don’t have the same data collection on their opponents.
Look no further than that Sixers game. Their starting five appeared in just one preseason game together. And you know, preseason teaches us very little.
Elsewhere, the Toronto Raptors have added a new No. 1 option in Kawhi Leonard. The Boston Celtics pivoted off Jaylen Brown to reorient around a Jayson Tatum-plus-other-guys approach. Though the Cleveland Cavaliers are pretty familiar, they added Peyton Watson and got a training camp with James Harden. New wrinkles are in play.
Orlando didn’t turn over any of the roster, but its offense already looks different under head coach Sean Sweeney. The Knicks know what the Indiana Pacers are capable of with Tyrese Haliburton, but the Ivica Zubac integration is a curveball. Ditto for Hali having packed on some muscle.
The Miami Heat added Giannis while shedding a bunch of other dudes. Nobody knows what to expect from the Washington Wizards’ science experiment. The Atlanta Hawks’ bench rotation is different with the additions of Kingston Flemings, Lu Dort, and Aaron Wiggins.
Skip ahead a few months, and the Eastern Conference landscape won’t feel as foreign. The interim is a different story. Sure, the Knicks might just be head-and-shoulders better than everyone else on most nights. But there is a real chance it takes time for them to hit their apex. And it’s not because of what they did or didn’t do.
It’s because of what everyone else has done.
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