Knicks may have quietly discovered what it'll cost to keep Mitchell Robinson

The Phoenix Suns may have just given the New York Knicks some excellent Mitchell Robinson news with their Mark Williams contract. Granted, this all predicted on James Dolan not cheaping out on his title-winning core. Which, um, yeah.

Then again, Williams’ agreement with the Suns is team-friendly enough that Dolan would have no choice but to reconsider his ridiculous stance if Robinson accepts it.

Phoenix’s big man is staying put on a three-year, $38 million deal that’s projected to start at $11.7 million in 2026-27. This Year 1 salary is lower than the $13 million Robinson made last season. It seems ridiculous to think he’d take a pay cut.

At the same time, Williams is a fairly good analog for Robinson’s risk-reward profile. 

Mark Williams’ contract is a good comparison for Mitchell Robinson

Make no mistake, these two are different players. Robinson provides way more utility on defense. But Williams has him beat on offense, as a more versatile scorer with some touch away from the basket who won’t build skyscrapers brick-by-brick from the foul line.

Still, they are both massive humans who use their enormity to dominate the glass. They each also have checkered health bills mainly populated by lower-body injuries.

Williams has played in 166 of a possible 328 regular-season games since entering the league four years ago. During this same span, Robinson has appeared in 167 of a possible 328 regular-season contests. Talk about uncanny. 

Prevailing consensus will insist Robinson is the more impactful player. And frankly, that’s the correct stance. But we shouldn’t pretend as if there’s a gigantic delta between them. Robinson is four years older, and has played fewer total minutes than Williams over the past four years. 

Plus, as much as Mitch contributed to the Knicks’ title run, head coach Mike Brown was still hesitant to play him when it mattered most. He gives up too much on the offensive end, especially when teams are hacking him. The idea that he will get close to Isaiah Hartenstein money in free agency is farfetched—particularly if he continues to be viewed as a reserve.

This could be fantastic news for the Knicks

In the event Robinson is willing to sign a deal similar to Williams’ contract with the Suns, the Knicks can and should pounce. Whether they will is a different story.

Dolan has both publicly and privately conveyed that New York will not enter the second apron. Everything the Knicks have done to begin their offseason suggests they are sticking to this plan.  

If we operate under the assumption they won’t enter the second apron, they currently can’t afford to give Robinson more than $8 million to $9 million next season. That falls short of the $11.7 million Williams is getting, which would already be a pay cut for Mitch.

The Knicks can drum up a little more by dumping Pacome Dadiet ($2.9 million), and replacing him with a rookie minimum ($1.3 million). This would create an extra $1.6 million in wiggle room. But that still doesn’t get New York to Williams’ number

Maybe this is a moot point. The free-agency market could dictate Robinson gets a lot more. But the Williams contract at the very least suggests he might not be greeted by a bevy of suitors offering lucrative deals. If that turns out to be the case, the Knicks would be foolish not to bring him back, and then figure out the second-apron stuff later.

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