For all the hemming and hawing over the New York Knicks’ place among the NBA’s contenders, they are quietly, somewhat stunningly, exceeding expectations when playing against top-10 defenses, and versus top-10 offenses.
New York enters the All-Star break with the league’s third-best offense when facing a top-10 defense. That is great, but not totally surprising. The Knicks, however, rank seventh in defense when going up against top-10 offenses. That is also great, and totally unexpected.
Oh, and it’s something no other team in the East is currently doing. In fact, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder are the only other squad that ranks in the top seven of offense versus top-10 defenses, and the top seven of defense versus top-10 offenses.
This isn’t something the Knicks were able to do last year
Performance versus standout teams in the regular season typically flies under the radar unless the returns are overwhelmingly bad. Last season’s Knicks squad is proof. They were below .500 against winning squads, and didn’t hold up nearly as well when running into elite defenses.
Heck, even the offense was uninspiring by the end of 2024-25. New York ranked ninth in points scored per possession versus top-10 defenses. That is…fine. It is nowhere near good enough when you’re a ho-hum 15th in defense when playing top-10 offenses.
If you’re wondering whether maintaining top-seven efficiency at both ends of the floor against offensive and defensive elites is a good indicator of your title-contender stock, the answer is…complicated.
Oklahoma City was in the top seven of both last season. (It was in the top two of both, actually.) The Boston Celtics just about did the same in 2024. But the Denver Nuggets (2023), Golden State Warriors (2022), and Milwaukee Bucks (2021) all fell outside the top seven on at least one end of the spectrum despite winning titles.
The Knicks are a bigger threat to win it all than last season
Still, this isn’t necessarily about spotting similarities between these Knicks, and previous champions. It’s about figuring out whether they have enough indicators that boost their chances this season, especially relative to last year.
The answer to that is a resounding yes.
All of New York’s primary concerns endure—its inconsistencies, a vacillating back of the rotation, Mitchell Robinson’s maintenance program, the myriad quirks and frustrations of the Karl-Anthony Towns experience, wild defensive swings, the absence of a reliable No. 2 creator, etc. But its title equity is greater than last year, and not merely because the Indiana Pacers and Celtics don’t pose the same kind of threat.
No, these Knicks, as imperfect and maddening as they may be, are so far passing a test they couldn’t last season. This is staggering to think about when we just burned so much brainpower a few weeks ago wondering whether they were unraveling in real time.
Even now, after winning 10 of their last 12 games, most of us generally aren’t convinced the Knicks have the extra gear necessary to win it all, particularly on defense. But maybe, just maybe, we’re overthinking it.