While the New York Knicks should be thrilled that Mitchell Robinson is ready to rock for the NBA Finals, they must not let his availability deviate from what’s got them here: loads of Karl-Anthony Towns at the 5. Dual-big units might be worth exploring further, but KAT as the lone big has the potential to do what the Oklahoma City Thunder couldn’t, and yank Victor Wembanyama outside the paint.
Heck, this philosophy even goes beyond Towns. Faced with the choice to sub in Robinson or experiment with rolling out OG Anunoby-at-center arrangements during KAT’s stints on the bench, head coach Mike Brown should think long and hard about the latter.
Anything and everything that nudges Wemby toward defending someone who won’t let him roam around and wreak havoc in the half-court needs to rank among New York’s top priorities. Opponents are shooting just 44.9 percent at the rim in the playoffs against the 7’4” DPOY. The league’s average conversion rate at the basket is 64.9 percent—a full 20 points higher.
The Thunder played into Victor Wembanyama’s hands
Oklahoma City is theoretically built to crack this code as well as anyone. For all this talk about Chet Holmgren’s lackluster performance in the Western Conference Finals, he provides a level of stretch that Wemby must respect.
But this idea is predicated largely on playing him at the 5. The Thunder opted against doing that against the San Antonio Spurs. Of the 179 minutes Holmgren logged with Wemby on the floor, just 48 of them came without Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, or Kenrich Williams off the court. In other words, barely 25 percent of Chet’s court time versus Wemby came as the 5.
Head coach Mark Daigneault had his reasons. Injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell compromised many of Oklahoma City’s secondary units, and J-Will emerged as one of the few who could be counted on to provide a reasonable performance baseline. Tilting toward dual-big looks also allowed the Thunder to prioritize physicality. Holmgren wasn’t doing that on his own.
Still, going this route gave Wemby more freedom to roam, including when San Antonio was overloading against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It would not be entirely fair to say this approach cost the Thunder a chance to defend their title more than injuries, or the Spurs just being better. But when you’re not getting to the rim, shooting under 56 percent when you get there, and Chet-at-the-5 units are posting a higher offensive rating with Wemby on the floor (116) than you notched for the series (105.4), the decision is worth questioning.
The Knicks must learn from Oklahoma City’s fatal error
New York shouldn’t twist itself into a pretzel overthinking the Wemby matchup. He is going to be a terror no matter who’s on the floor. But catering to Towns at the 5 doesn’t cost them spacing or physicality. He provides both.
Granted, the Knicks must worry about KAT getting into foul trouble if he’s matched up with Wembanyama. It’s worth the risk if it means displacing the NBA’s foremost extraterrestrial from where he’s most dangerous on defense.
Other factors must go into this approach, too. The Spurs are bound to put Wemby on Josh Hart, in an attempt to let him roam. As always, then, Hart’s three-point shooting is a major swing factor.
If those looks aren’t falling, the Knicks need to consider pushing the Landry Shamet or Deuce McBride button earlier. They give up size and strength in those situations, but they also make it far more likely that Wemby attaches himself to KAT—a matchup that might not favor Towns himself, but lifts up everyone else around him.
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