Robert Williams III is signing a three-year, $44 million extension with the Portland Trail Blazers that should make the New York Knicks queasy about their prospects of re-signing Mitchell Robinson. But as it turns out, the deal in Rose City has partial guarantees that protect the team—a structure that could maybe, just maybe, convince owner James Dolan to shelve his ill-timed attempt at sending the league office a message.
According to NBA insider Jake Fischer, Portland has fully guaranteed RW3’s 2026-27 salary at $14 million. After that, only $5 million of his $14.7 million in 2027-28 is guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he plays in at least 50 games during the 2026-27 campaign. Meanwhile, Year 3 is entirely non-guaranteed unless he makes 50 appearances in the preceding season.
This is a unique structure, and it’s reflective of Williams’ checkered health bill. Between that, his permanent minutes management, and the defensive utility he provides, this contract could end up being a good analog for the Knicks and Robinson.
Mitchell Robinson may be willing to strike a compromise with the Knicks
In the interest of fairness to Robinson, he has proven to be more available than Williams. Over the past four years, he has appeared in 167 games to RW3’s 120, while averaging more minutes (22.9 to 19.2).
Still, the two were more in lockstep this season. Robinson averaged 19.6 minutes across 60 appearances. Williams averaged 17.1 minutes through 59 games. Robinson is hair younger. Williams offers more offensive optionality as a passer and finisher.
Basically, the two are close enough that RW3’s price point is a good springboard for Robinson negotiations. If Williams is willing to accept partial guarantees related to availability on the back end, it stands to reason Mitch might, too.
Granted, this would not prevent the Knicks from entering the second apron. They have a little under $6 million in room beneath it. Robinson is definitely costing more than that. But perhaps Dolan is willing to pony up now knowing he won’t be on the hook for the full freight unless Robinson proves he’s regularly available, in which case New York won’t need to sweat paying him or facing the second-apron restrictions it seems to fear.
The Knicks could go another route with Robinson, too
There is another layer to Williams’ contract that could benefit the Knicks. Instead of including partial guarantees on the back end, New York could guarantee the whole thing in exchange for Robinson accepting a lower price point.
Under its current terms, Williams is assured a total of $19 million depending on his availability. If the Knicks offer Robinson $30 million in guaranteed money across three years, they could start his 2026-27 salary at $9.3 million. Though they’d still be in the second apron, they’d be close enough to exiting it that they could play it by ear entering the trade deadline.
Variables abound here. Most notably, the alternative path entails Robinson accepting a pay cut off his previous four-year, $60 million deal. While the non-superstar center market is hardly frothy, this falls closer to the pipe-dream end of the spectrum.
Portland’s contract structure with Williams is nevertheless yet another alternative path New York can explore, on top of a few other ones. Few of them keep the Knicks out of the second apron. But they all make it so Dolan wouldn’t have to stay in it for long, or if things go wrong.
Until or unless Robinson actually leaves, this counts as hope.
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