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If Brook Lopez Opts Out, Should the New York Knicks Pursue?

By William Lee

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Marc Berman of the New York Post brought up the idea of potentially pursuing Brook Lopez of the Brooklyn Nets this summer.

"“Maybe Knicks president Phil Jackson can finally stir the Knicks-Nets rivalry pot this summer by convincing Brooklyn’s raging-hot center Brook Lopez to swap boroughs.”“Lopez, who has an opt-out clause and could become a free agent,”"

If Lopez were to opt-out of the final year in his contract, he would be leaving $16,774,000 on the table. Berman reasoned that Lopez might want to consider this option because of his injury history.

"“There’s no guarantee Lopez opts out of his $16.7 million final year. But with his history of foot issues that includes another metatarsal fracture last winter and stock on the rise, Lopez may not risk another injury in 2015-16 without locking in long-term.”"

Berman used injuries as the reasoning for Lopez to opt-out of his contract, but shouldn’t that be the exact reason why the New York Knicks shouldn’t try to lure him to Madison Square Garden? Lopez started off his career like an iron man, playing all 82 games in his first three seasons in the league. That drastically changed though in the lockout season of 2011-2012, where Lopez broke his right foot early in the season and then injured it after returning mid-season. Brooklyn then shut down Lopez the rest of the year in hopes of getting him fully recovered. Lopez played only five games in the season.

"“Lopez and Plumlee don’t make a good on-court pairing, most scouts agree. And that may not bode well for Lopez’s future in Brooklyn.”"

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Taking a look into his lineups combination stats from Basketball Reference this proves to be true. Looking at the top ten 5-man combinations, 4-man combinations, 3-man combinations and 2-man combinations per 100 possessions, Miles Plumlee’s name either appears as the tenth best combination with Lopez or does not appear on the list at all. For the season the combination of Lopez and Plumlee netted an astonishing pathetic -15.6 points per 100 possessions. The Brooklyn Nets back doored their way into the Playoffs with a 38-44 record, so their net averages per 100 possessions aren’t even positive. For the season the average for any Nets’ 2-man combination per 100 possessions was a -3.1, the Lopez and Plumlee combination of -15.6 blows that out the water!

So Berman’s point is valid and given the choice to keep a 25 year old athletic 6’ 11” big man in Mason Plumlee or a 27 year old seven footer with multiple foot injuries in recent history, Brooklyn would be foolish to choose the latter. Plumlee is not only the safer choice for Brooklyn, but is also the more financially responsible choice. Plumlee is set to make $1,415,520 next season, while Lopez will command at least his current $16,774,000 salary for next season or more.

Lopez when on the court is a big man that New York desperately needs since the Knicks traded away the 2012 NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Tyson Chandler. Lopez while not the defensive player Chandler is, can hold his own with his 7’5.5” wingspan (as per Draft Express). Lopez has an average of 1.7 blocks per game, with a career best of 2.1 blocks per game in 2012-2013.

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As per NBA.com Diff% which is defined as – The difference between the normal field goal percentage of a shooter through the season and the field goal percentage when the defensive player is guarding the shooter. A good defensive number will be negative because the defensive player is guarding the shooter. A good defensive number will be negative because the defensive player holds their opponent to a lower field goal percentage than normal. Lopez’s diff% within six feet is -4.9, with a slight decline when stretched a little further out -4 diff% within ten feet from the rim.

What Lopez does that Chandler never did in his time with New York and what the Knicks desperately need is be a true offensive low post threat. Lopez takes 68.18% of his shots either in the restricted area or in the paint (non-restricted area) as per NBA Savant. Lopez can also keep the defense honest with a solid mid-range game, taking opponents outside 30.8% of the time. Lopez is a respectable 45.8% from 10-14 ft. when compared to a seven foot sniper in Dirk Nowitzki, 47.8% from the same distance. Although Lopez drops off significantly from 15-19 ft. range with 41.7%, compared to Nowitzki’s 48.2% from the same distance, as per NBA.com.

Ideally Brook Lopez would be a perfect player to pair up with Carmelo Anthony, the combination of inside-outside game from both players would be a potent offensive force, much like Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. Unfortunately much like that Rocket’s combo, where injuries plaguing both franchise players limited their success; the same scenario is a possibility if the Knicks sign Lopez. Lopez previous foot injuries is a concern and Anthony’s season ending surgery is a concern, although there has been good news that Anthony is ahead of schedule in his recovery process.

Berman asked Lopez asked before the last Nets Knicks match up how he enjoyed the atmosphere at Madison Square Garden.

"“Playing in Madison Square Garden, you dream of that. Fans are always there regardless of the Knicks’ progress on the floor. They’re always loud and bring great energy. It’s fun to come here and play the Knicks.’’"

It would be fun to see how a Brook Lopez and Carmelo Anthony pairing would look like on the court together, particularly on offense. Unfortunately given the risk concerns regarding injuries to both players, it would be a wiser move to take a pass on Lopez. Let another team worry about a seven footer with multiple foot injuries.

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