Salary cap expert makes not-so-bold Julius Randle 2025 offseason prediction

Contrary to what you might have heard, the New York Knicks don't have a Julius Randle problem. He became extension-eligible on Aug. 3, but it's not a bad thing that the two sides haven't agreed to a deal. If the Knicks wanted to trade Randle, he'd be gone by now.

New York could still extend Randle, but it'd mean he wouldn't be trade-eligible before the deadline. As optimistic as Randle and the Knicks are, there's a chance things could go wrong in the first half of the season. If New York needs to upgrade the roster before the playoffs, it could mean Randle will be on the way out.

However, let's not pretend Randle isn't a key part of what the Knicks have built. He chose New York when others (Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving) didn't. Since signing with the Knicks, he's made two All-NBA teams and three All-Star teams. Last season's result would've been drastically different if he hadn't dislocated his shoulder.

There's plenty of reason to be optimistic about Randle's future, even though he hasn't signed an extension. He could decline his $30.9 million player option for 2025-26 to become an unrestricted free agent next summer to re-sign with New York (or another team). Spotrac contributor Keith Smith doesn't think the forward will enter free agency in 2025.

Keith Smith predicts Knicks star Julius Randle will pick up player option

On the "NBA Front Office" podcast, Smith said he believes Randle will pick up his player option next offseason.

“My guess is that player option right now for the 2025-26 season; I would say a pretty good bet [Randle] picks that up just because it doesn’t look like a great free agent market for the teams that have cap space next summer. Not that you couldn’t still work out a sign and trade or something like that, but my guess is he’s probably going to pick that up. So if you’re the Knicks, it’s a little bit of a wait-and-see approach, and if you’re Randle, you’re probably okay with that too.”

Free agency isn't what it used to be. Several players bet on themselves this summer, only to receive a lower offer than they expected or not one at all. Randle isn't an ordinary NBA player, but there's a chance he could decline his player option to learn that he wouldn't sign a deal that comes close to a $30 million per year salary.

Leon Rose and Co. are letting the situation play out rather than make a short-sighted decision. It still might feel weird for Knicks fans to know they can trust the front office after years of mishandled situations, but New York and Randle are in good hands.