Jalen Williams. Kawhi Leonard. Anthony Edwards. Jaren Jackson Jr. Paolo Banchero. The list of notable NBA injuries that will cost big names substantial time is unsettlingly long. If preliminary evidence is any indication, it will continue to get longer.
Which is why the New York Knicks should expect Jalen Brunson to come for his money next summer, when he’s first extension-eligible, rather than traveling the alternative path that could make him more money.
Starting on July 12, the reigning Finals MVP can decline his 2028-29 player option, and sign a four-year deal worth a projected $286.5 million. While this is considered the most likely outcome, Brunson could wait until the 2028 offseason to ink a new contract.
At that point, upon declining his player option, he could re-up with the Knicks on a five-year deal worth a forecasted $370.8 million—securing himself an extra $84-plus million in guaranteed earnings.
Jalen Brunson almost assuredly won’t wait to extend with the Knicks
The idea of a nearly $400 million payday has to resonate with Brunson on some level. He already left tons of money on the table by extending instead of entering free agency with his current deal. This is his chance to be compensated for that, in addition to everything else he’s done. He has basically said as much, too.
But maxing out his guaranteed earnings would require waiting another year. That carries its own risk. As a small guard now in his 30s who plays a hyper-physical brand of offense, he could be uniquely susceptible to injury or onset regression.
Citing his career-long durability doesn’t lower the risk. It just adds to the miles on his body. Since arriving in New York, Mikal Bridges and Anthony Edwards are the only players who have racked up more combined regular-season and playoff minutes than Brunson.
This recent wave of injuries—and injury trends—only heightens the urgency for JB to bag long-term security. Absences aren’t always an indication of age or work ethic. Edwards, J-Dub, Banchero, Haliburton, and JJJ are all younger than Brunson.
All of these players have more checkered health bills in their rear view. That matters. But so does the league’s evolving play style.
As Caitlin Cooper of Basketball, She Wrote has astutely pointed out, the NBA “is averaging the most possessions per game, shortest average possession length, highest average pickup distance, and most possessions with at least three offensive players crashing in the tracking era.” The first three items extract a heavy toll on primary ball-handlers such as Brunson, who continues to be the Knicks’ offensive lifeforce despite Karl-Anthony Towns’ excellent start to the season.
The Knicks and Brunson could technically still surprise us
Brunson bucked conventional wisdom by joining the Knicks, and then again by signing a max extension rather than entering free agency. He could do something similar again.
Maybe he is confident enough in his relationship with the organization that he waits out the $370 million payday. Even if he’s not worth it in real time, New York could be compelled to fork over whatever it takes to retain the primary person responsible for ending a 53-year title drought.
Given who we’re talking about here, Brunson could actually take less than the max in his next deal. Granted, the Knicks shouldn’t count on it. They can’t rule it out, either.
No matter how much Brunson extends for, though, the NBA’s injury upswing is among the many factors that will determine when he does. It’s going to be as soon as he can—and not a moment later.
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