Among the many ambitious goals Mike Brown has set for the New York Knicks this season, one is loftier than them all. And achieving it requires him to start Deuce McBride.
Mitchell Robinson seems like the favorite, at this point, to begin games alongside Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns. This jibes with Brown’s desire for rim protection. It does not jell with his wanting to get up a monster number of threes.
“I mean if we get 40 [threes], I’m cool with it,” he told reporters, via Kristian Winfield of the New York Daily News. “If we get 40-plus, I’m cool with it—but they’ve gotta be good threes…But if we play like we’re capable of — with pace, especially spacing, and the paint touches — we should generate a lot of catch-and-shoot threes.”
Just four teams launched 40 or more triples per game last year. The Knicks were right around 34. That’s a pretty big gap to bridge. And they’ll be hard-pressed to do it with Robinson in the starting five.
Starting Mitchell Robinson runs counter to Mike Brown’s overall vision
Just 36.8 percent of New York’s shot attempts last year came from distance with its big man on the floor. That is lower than their overall rate (38.2 percent), which was already the third-lowest in the league.
Drumming up that number with Robinson is a virtual no-go. He can free up shooters with his screens, and generate three-point looks off his offensive rebounds. But that is already baked into the returns we are seeing here, and in line with his entire career. The Knicks have attempted at least 40 percent of their shots from distance with him in the game only once.
Expecting that to change, even with the infusion of more ball movement, is a fool’s errand. Robinson creates inherent challenges, as a non-spacer, for players who rely on above-the-break threes to get by. Both Bridges and Towns saw their long-range volume plummet in their minutes alongside Robinson.
Deuce McBride should start for the Knicks
Leaning into extra volume from deep gets a lot more feasible with Deuce in place of Josh Hart or Robinon. Sure, the Knicks will have to get creative with their bench units if both Hart and Robinson are coming off the pine. That’s fine. Staggering exists for a reason, and it looks like New York will have both Landry Shamet and Malcolm Brogdon at its disposal as well.
Last year, across both the regular season and playoffs, the Knicks averaged 34.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions with Robinson on the court. That number actually dipped to 33.9 during Josh Hart’s minutes. But it jumped to 38.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions in McBride’s court time.
The data speaks for itself, and its message is clear: If pace-and-space is the Knicks’ goal, the final starting-five slot should be McBride’s to lose.