If the past really is prologue, the New York Knicks can go ahead and prepare to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals.
Don’t roll your eyes whilst muttering “Duh, idiot, they’re up 3-2” at me! Oklahoma City’s matchup with the San Antonio Spurs has given off “anything’s possible” vibes since Game 1. A 3-2 deficit isn’t about to faze Victor Wembanyama, and his band of merry physically imposing guards. Especially when Game 6 is being played in San Antonio.
At the same time, winners of Game 5 in a best-of-seven series tied 2-2 are virtually unbeatable. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, in fact, they go on to advance 81.8 percent of the time.
To be fair, that winning percentage drops during the conference finals. Teams that bag Game 5 of a series tied 2-2 in these instances only go on to win the best-of-seven set…76.4 percent of the time.
The Knicks will remain Spurs fans in Game 6
This information doesn’t change the Knicks’ rooting interests. It’s not that they should prefer to face Wemby and the Spurs—though, you can definitely argue as much. It’s more so about pulling for the Western Conference Finals to reach a Game 7, so that Oklahoma City and San Antonio can continue exhausting the crap out of each other for an additional 48 minutes (or more!).
Call it greedy. Or even unnecessary. It might be both. The Knicks have won enough pre-Finals, including when they’re not actually playing.
They are already going to enjoy a substantial rest advantage no matter how Game 6 between the Spurs and Thunder plays out. Not only will the Knicks have more time off in-between series, but they’ll have played a total of eight games in about 24 days once the Finals tip-off.
Now’s not the time to say New York has carved out enough advantages, and abandon all pretense. The Knicks can, and should, and definitely do, have a preference for who they face, and the circumstances under which they meet them. A little ol’ massive thing like historical context does nothing to change that.
New York should mentally prepare for the near-inevitable outcome anyway
On the flip side, there’s no use pretending the Knicks shouldn’t at least clock what history says will happen. The reigning champs are likely going to be their Finals foe. They need to prepare for it.
This is not to say head coach Mike Brown should hold eight hours’ worth of practice beginning Wednesday in which he has the team memorize every on-court tidbit related to Oklahoma City. This should be more of a spiritual preparation.
Yes, the Knicks should want the Spurs and Thunder to play Game 7. And sure, unless they think Jalen Williams and/or Ajay Mitchell won’t be ready for the Finals, they should probably prefer to square off against San Antonio’s relative inexperience and shallower rotation.
Still, Oklahoma City returning to the NBA Finals has seemed like the most likely outcome since the season started. As its victory in Game 5 and the historical context that comes with it prove, nothing’s changed.
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