Josh Hart is going to make or break Tom Thibodeau's future with the Knicks

Flexibility is seldom considered a strong suit for New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau. He has grown in certain areas, make no mistake. The 2023-24 campaign, specifically, was nothing if not proof of progress. Just look at his reliance on smaller backcourts, or how he used Isaiah Hartenstein.

Still, in the aggregate, New York's head honcho is set in so many of his ways, following a set of principles he clearly considers inviolable. Chief among those unflappable ideologies: sticking with his guys.

Nobody over the past few seasons illustrates this more than Josh Hart. While far from the Knicks best player, he has become the exemplar of Thibs' belief in the select few. Since making his orange-and-blue debut in February 2023, across both the regular season and playoffs, Hart has tallied 7,254 total minutes. That is 739 more than Jalen Brunson, New York's best (and second-most used) player. When looking at the past two years in their totality, Anthony Edwards is the only name in the league to cobble together more court time.

Thibs' reliance on Hart is, of course, a testament to the 30-year-old's durability. It is also a gauge for the former's utter dependability on a select few, for both better and worse.

In Hart's case, it is often for the better. But there are moments, as well as extended pockets of time, in which he either makes the team worse, or at the very least restricts what they can do, and how hard they can punch back against certain sets of circumstances.

This is, again, an extension of Thibodeau's larger ethos. Entering the start of the 2025 NBA playoffs, it is also the x-factor that may determine whether he's still patrolling the Knicks' sideline next season.

Yes, Thibs' job is on the line

Plenty of fans push back against the idea that Thibodeau is on the hot seat. This is a fair stance to assume when looking at New York's situation through the lens of conventional patience. The front office has significantly upended the top of the roster over the past 15 months, and Thibs put pen to paper on a three-year extension this past July.

Patience isn't all that conventional in the NBA, though. Windows open and shut quickly. Teams move swiftly—and react starkly—as a result. The decision-making process gets brasher as the stakes get higher. And after dealing away control of seven first-round picks this past summer, the stakes for the Knicks are reaching critical mass.

Heads will invariably roll if New York bows out in the first round against the Detroit Pistons or doesn't put up a convincing fight versus (presumably) the Boston Celtics in Round 2. With virtually no more draft equity or cap maneuverability (apron life is hard, y'all) to spare, Thibs' name will be first on the chopping block.

Ian Begley of SNY recently confirmed as much on an episode of The Putback.

"Earlier this year, somebody asked me about Tom Thibodeau, and I thought based on everything that I'd heard coming into the year, I didn't think there was a scenario where the Knicks would change their head coach," Begley explained. "Now, more recently having conversations with people, seeing which way the wind is blowing, the stakes are high for Tom Thibodeau going into this postseason."

And this brings us to the Josh Hart of it all.

The Knicks could have a Josh Hart problem out of the gate

Anyone who has followed the Knicks even semi-closely this year understands all Hart brings to the table. He is a pace-setter, a ball-mover, an opportunistic glass-crasher, forever available, and an emotional bellwether. At his best, he raises this team's ceiling, making plays and expending energy that perfectly encapsulates the grit with which last year's squad, in particular, carried itself on the court.

At this worst, though, Hart shrinks the floor, complicating life for everyone around him on offense, and submarining certain lineup structures.

Defenses do not care to aggressively guard him away from the ball, even when he's making threes. When he's shooting under 30 percent from distance, like he's done for the past 50-plus games, on volume that indicates an inherent hesitance to let 'er rip? Well, it becomes an open invitation for rival teams to stick their big man on him, the results of which are often mucked-up driving lanes and additional pressure elsewhere that is almost penalty-free

Eighty-one players during the regular season attempted at least as many unguarded threes as Hart (167). His 34.1 percent clip on these looks ranks 74th among that group. On catch-and-shoot attempts specifically, Hart placed in the 86th percentile of openness, but just the 10th percentile of efficiency, according to BBall Index. The list of other non-bigs to do the same (or perform worse) while attempting as many triples per 75 possessions reads like a dossier on guys who are a coin toss to stay on the floor during the playoffs.

This could be an issue for the Knicks right away. Granted, the Pistons have generally not stashed Jalen Duren (or Isaiah Stewart) on Hart during regular-season matchups. He has seen more time opposite Cade Cunningham and Tim Hardaway Jr.

That doesn't mean Detroit's head coach, J.B. Bickerstaff, will not switch things up over the course of a seven-game series. The real surprise will be if he opts against it. The opportunity is too tantalizing, and oft-effective, to pass up. Among 56 players this season who qualified as primary ball-handlers on offense, Jalen Johnson is the only one being guarded by rim protectors more often, per Ball Index. And he has not played since late January.

If this issue does not manifest against the Pistons, it will certainly materialize in Round 2 against the Celtics, after they presumably beat the snot out of the Orlando Magic. Kristaps Porzingis spent more total time guarding Hart this season than any other Boston player. The second-most frequent defender on Hart for the Celtics? That would be Al Horford.

New York's offense—surprise, surprise—didn't look so hot in these instances, pumping out a little more than 0.67 points per possession. For comparison's sake, the Washington Wizards belched out the least efficient offensive attack overall on the year, and they mustered nearly 1.06 points per possession.

Thibs' response to the inevitable Hart dilemma can change everything

Reconciling this problem is not a matter of if. It's an issue of when. And Thibs' response may very well make or break the Knicks' playoff push—and, by extension, his future in The Big Apple.

If Hart isn't making his threes, or even if he is and defenses still aren't reacting to him before or on the catch, New York's head honcho almost always defaults to—you guessed it—sticking with his guy. Whether that speaks to his faith in Hart, or lack of conviction in contingencies, is debatable. It could be a meld of both.

It doesn't really matter. Either way, the end result comes at the cost of seeing if anything—if anyone—else can work.

Many a fan has called for Thibs to sub in Deuce McBride and give him even more run with the starters. That lineup is undeniably small and has not fared well defensively, but it is an offensive supernova, and could be especially workable against Detroit, when Bickerstaff is playing Ausar Thompson or Ron Holland II alongside Duren or even Isaiah Stewart.

Thibs also has the option of leaning all the way into offense with Landry Shamet. Though he can be a net-negative on defense, he will fight against screens, and teams cannot as easily get away with hiding bigs on him when he's drilling almost 40 percent of his looks from deep.

If that arrangement doesn't check enough of Thibs' preferred boxes, and the Knicks are going to be working around a non-shooter anyway, it's probably worth exploring more of the Karl-Anthony Towns-Mitchell Robinson pairing. The duo has played just 47 minutes together, and fluky opponent three-point shooting skews the small-sample returns. But the interior deterrence of Robinson should make it easier to hide KAT, at least against certain Pistons lineups, or give him carte blanche to be more aggressive. Their collective size, meanwhile, should be a major boon on the glass.

Embracing one, some or all of these audibles may not work, particularly versus the Celtics, who pose problems the Knicks so far seem ill-equipped to solve. But when the Josh Hart experience goes sideways—because it will go sideways, even if only temporarily—Thibodeau's willingness to investigate other options, and to adapt at all, could be the difference between a postseason run that is remembered as a harbinger of progress, or one that costs him his job.

Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.