One resolution to Mitchell Robinson’s future with the New York Knicks was removed from the table at the trade deadline. We now know they won’t be moving him in advance of free agency. With Giannis Antetokounmpo’s latest comments on his future, though, we also know that the Knicks won’t be extending Robinson, either.
Giannis recently had a sitdown with ESPN’s Malika Andrews, during which he addressed his future head-on. Sort of.
"As of today, I'm committed to the Milwaukee Bucks," he told Andrews. "I'm committed to the people that I work with, my teammates, the coaching staff, Coach Doc [Rivers] and [GM] Jon [Horst] in the front office.”
Like virtually every other time Giannis has discussed his plans, there is room to read between the lines. While he also says “you will never hear me say I don't want to be a Milwaukee Buck,” he also likened his 2021 title to a “delicious steak” that he wants to eat again.
This amounts to a continuation of what we’ve known all along. Giannis has not quit on the Bucks, he has no plans to quit on the Bucks, and he’s happy to be in Milwaukee so long as he sees a pathway toward a title.
None of this does anything to kibosh offseason speculation. The Bucks are not contending for a title without a massive move or two. By reiterating his desire to chase championships, Giannis is keeping every suitor linked to him, including the Knicks, on the hook.
Navigating the offseason will be easier for the Knicks without Mitchell Robinson on the books
Robinson can sign an extension with the Knicks essentially right up until he hits free agency. Acting early can have its advantages, the most notable of which is it keeps him from exploring the open market. Extensions on expiring contracts also have a way of skewing team-friendly. Robinson could take a discount in exchange for sewing up longer-term security.
Extending him can technically give New York another matching salary with which to work in trade negotiations, too. He can be moved six months after signing a new deal. If the Knicks time it right, he can be shipped well before the start of next season.
And yet, the team’s overarching financial situation makes exploring this path risky, if not untenable. New York currently sits around $17.6 million below next year’s second apron. That should be enough room to squeeze in Robinson, but here’s the problem: These projections only account for nine players. Robinson would make 10. It would not include prospective new deals for Landry Shamet or Mohamed Diawara, both of whom are proving beyond important, or this year’s first-round pick.
Ambling into the second apron should not be off the table if it’s the cost of fielding a championship contender—or keeping one intact. But the Knicks can’t afford to begin the offseason in it if they want to pursue Giannis.
Second-apron squads are not able to send out multiple salaries in prospective trades. Building a Giannis package gets exponentially harder when you can’t aggregate contracts. Especially when you’ll be light on assets in the first place.
Mitchell Robinson will have to sight tight
Now, New York could enter the offseason in the second apron, and then aggregate salaries in a Giannis trade so long as they finish outside the second apron following the deal. But the Knicks have enough working against them—namly superior packages from other teams. Insisting they cut their payroll as part of Giannis’ arrival is an unnecessary complication.
Plus, even if New York can guarantee a Robinson extension won’t remove them from the running, it might still avoid acting early. Giannis is at his best alongside a floor-spacing 5. Robinson isn’t that. And though he’s more talented than anyone the Knicks could hope to bag using the minimum—or even mini mid-level exception—leaving him unsigned maximizes their optionality.
In the end, that’s what this is really all about: The absence of an extension won’t be a nod to Robinson’s value, or even his checkered health bill. It’ll be about keeping the Giannis door as wide-open as possible, for as long as possible.