Giannis may have just sent the Knicks a worrying message

Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to be headed for a divorce from the Milwaukee Bucks, and everyone is understandably fascinated by what this means for the New York Knicks. 

Spoiler alert: It may mean the opposite of what so many think it does.

Sure, Giannis reportedly had eyes for only the Knicks over the offseason. If this remains true now, it could put them in the driver’s seat, even though their best offers pale in comparison to those that can be cobbled together by the San Antonio Spurs, Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets, and many others. 

Yet, the timing of his revisiting his future with the Milwaukee Bucks suggests that he’s no longer desperate to reach New York.

The timing of Giannis’ potential trade request isn’t doing the Knicks any favors

If Giannis truly has New York as his first and only destination, he would not be flirting with the idea of a trade demand so far in advance of the Feb. 5 deadline. Heck, he would not be looking to relocate now at all. He’d be waiting for the offseason.

The Knicks are always going to be at an inherent disadvantage in negotiations with the Milwaukee Bucks. They have no blue-chip youngsters to dangle, and their draft-pick stash is barren. But their best offer now pales in comparison to what it can be over the summer.

New York will have the ability to flip its 2026 first-round pick and 2033 first-rounder during offseason trade talks. This is on top of swaps in 2030 and 2032. If Giannis gets moved this season, the Knicks’ best offer can only include first-round swaps. 

That isn’t going to fly with a Bucks squad almost assuredly getting ready to rebuild. Even though they do not control their own first-round until 2030, they will still be better off prioritizing as much draft and prospect compensation as they can garner. New York cannot currently check either of those boxes.

This says nothing of trade-eligibility for the Knicks’ actual players. 

Mikal Bridges has officially become the quintessential Giannis chip, as either an asset to Milwaukee, or someone who nets first-round picks from other teams that get sent to the Bucks. The thing is, he cannot be moved until Feb. 1, just days before the Feb. 5 deadline. Given that Giannis is putting Milwaukee on notice in early December, he doesn’t seem content to wait.

The Knicks’ Giannis hopes rest on the Bucks placating their superstar

The Knicks and their fans can (and should) hold out hope that Giannis makes life uncomfortable for the Bucks. They should also hope that negotiations unfold just as ESPN’s Brian Windhorst says they will: with Milwaukee sending Giannis wherever he wants to go:

Still, Giannis' pressure will get him only so far. Maybe the Bucks resign themselves to taking the Knicks’ best possible package, but that best possible package won’t be available to them, in full, until the summer.

Short of Giannis demanding that Milwaukee accept a Karl-Anthony Towns-and-stuff swap, the Knicks were always better off with this saga stretching past into the offseason. If it doesn’t, it increases the chances that Giannis opens up his wish list, or that the Bucks don’t adhere to his demands.

That’s the other part of all this: Milwaukee is not obligated to place Giannis if he’s leaving. And if the Bucks are moving him midseason, with a year-and-a-half separating him from the end of his contract (2027-28 player option), prospective suitors won’t care as much that they’re not on his list. Any one of the Hawks, Spurs, Rockets, Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors, et al. could roll the ice on convincing him to stay over the next 18 months or so.

Who knows, perhaps the timing of the latest Giannis wrinkle winds up being a good thing for the Knicks. More likely than not, though, it’s a sign that their already-long odds of landing him just got even longer.