Reigning NBA champions historically end up getting noticeably worse in the season following their title. After the rest of the Eastern Conference spent the summer feverishly (desperately?) trying to bridge the gap between themselves and the New York Knicks, the ‘bocker boys may actually be better positioned to avoid the drop-off we have come to expect.
Yes, expect.Â
Squads defending their titles almost always experience a dip in performance. And it isn’t just when big names leave.Â
Going off Basketball-Reference’s data and adjusting for the number of games played each season (to account for shortened schedules), the past 20 reigning champions see their net rating decline by an average of roughly two points per 100 possessions the following year.Â
That doesn’t seem like much on the surface. But in the Knicks’ case, a two-point tumble from this season’s net rating of 6.5 would take them to 4.5. Though that would still rank within the top 10, it’s also lower than the net rating posted by the 2025-26 Charlotte Hornets. We all know how their campaign ended: with a play-in beatdown that no doubt played a role in their decision to trade cornerstone LaMelo Ball.Â
This somewhat alarming trend isn’t exacerbated by all-time-dominant point differentials sliding down a larger scale, either.Â
Of the past 20 champs, 10 of them finished their title season with a net rating between 4.0 and 7.0, which is right in the Knicks’ wheelhouse. The adjusted drop-off for these squads the next year comes out to 1.7—slightly less than 2.0, but still enough to drag New York closer to outside a top-10 mark.
New York has every incentive to buck this trend
Reasons for post-title regression can vary. Age, injuries, and departures are among the biggest driving forces. But there is also a complacency effect. Motivation can be hard to scrounge up when you’ve already scaled the top of the mountain.
Little about these Knicks suggests they are wired that way. Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby, in particular, are competitive sociopaths. (That’s a compliment.)Â
Still, even if the Knicks were inclined to take their foot off the gas, they can’t. The Eastern Conference won’t let them.
The Toronto Raptors (Kawhi Leonard), Miami Heat (Giannis Antetokounmpo), Philadelphia 76ers (LeBron James, Jaylen Brown), and Cleveland Cavaliers (Peyton Watson) have all reloaded their rosters in the image of catching the Knicks. The Detroit Pistons aren’t going anywhere. The Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers could be healthier. Heck, the Washington Wizards might even be good. The Boston Celtics…exist. Or something.
Knowing teams haven’t just put a target on the Knicks’ backs but actively shifted roster constructions to combat them is nothing if not liable to light a competitive fire. With so many squads believing they can take them down, not to mention oddsmakers billing the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder as title favorites, the Knicks still have plenty of people they need to prove wrong.Â
The Knicks may not have to worry about the traditional championship no matter what
Truth be told, New York might not have even required the Eastern Conference arms race to ramp up to skirt the post-title slide. Two of the biggest driving forces behind it—age and regression—don’t apply to the Knicks.Â
Mitchell Robinson is the only player from the top 10 of their postseason rotation on another team, and he ranked eighth in the minutes-played pecking order. Everyone on the roster is a year older, because that’s how math works. But Jordan Clarkson was the only member of the playoff rotation who was older than 31. The meat and potatoes of this roster remains its prime.
Injuries can still ruin everything. And while that’s true of every team, the Knicks’ core has ferried a gargantuan workload the past few years. Of the seven players who have logged the most minutes through both the regular season and playoffs since 2024, five of them wear orange and blue: Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
There is no quantifying the toll this extracts. Then again, running off a dominant 16-3 playoff record helps limit the wear and tear. At the very least, New York would be more banged up had every series they played gone seven games.Â
Between this and an Eastern Conference hierarchy begging the Knicks to remain at their best, the likelihood of noticeable regression feels slim. If anything, it’s grounds to believe New York can become the fourth reigning champ of the past two decades to improve its net rating by one point, rather than see it slip by two or more.
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