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Expectations for Jalen Brunson as Knicks make push to playoffs

ByZachary Bachar|
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 18: Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks brings the ball up the court during the first quarter of the game against the Washington Wizards at Madison Square Garden on January 18, 2023 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 18: Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks brings the ball up the court during the first quarter of the game against the Washington Wizards at Madison Square Garden on January 18, 2023 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

The New York Knicks currently hold the sixth-best record in the Eastern Conference as they look to avoid the play-in tournament, securing a return trip to the playoffs without any extra steps. The most impactful player behind this commendable season has been Jalen Brunson.

Brunson has finally solidified the team’s starting point guard position and is already being discussed as one of the greatest free-agent signings in Knicks history.

In his first season away from the Dallas Mavericks, he’s averaging 23.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 0.9 steals per game. He’s also shooting 49% from the field, just over 41% from three, and 84% on free throws.

Acting as the offensive engine for the Knicks, Brunson went on a tear before the All-Star break. Over his last 21 contests, he’s averaging exactly 30 points per game while shooting 52% from the field. Those are absurd numbers for any player, even more so for a 6’1″ guard.

Knicks’ Jalen Brunson’s post All-Star break expectations

While Brunson’s big scoring totals and top-tier efficiency may not last the entire season, it doesn’t appear that he’s going to hit a wall anytime soon, either.

He’s hitting a career-high amount of pull-up threes, but he’s always been an above-average shooter and has already had a season hitting over 40% of his looks from behind the arc.

Not to mention that his corner three-point percentage has actually been lower than his career average, which means that an increase in that department could offset any dip in his shooting numbers off the dribble.

The return of starting center Mitchell Robinson could also help Brunson’s efficiency, as Robinson’s lob threat makes defenders less eager to help on drives and allow for more space at the rim compared to Jericho Sims.

Brunson has averaged 13.5 two-point field goal attempts with Robinson in the lineup this year compared to 12.4 two-point attempts without him. With Brunson shooting over 51% on two-pointers this season, taking one more shot per game inside the arc can help boost his overall percentages even further.

There’s also a clear path toward Brunson’s assist numbers increasing, which starts with Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. Brunson averages a combined 33.5 passes per game to those two.

However, Randle is shooting 37% from the field and 29% from three on those passes. Similarly, Barrett is shooting 35% from the field and 29% from three when Brunson gets the ball to him.

Brunson would be averaging over 1.1 more assists if Randle and Barrett knocked down those shots at a percentage similar to their career averages instead of those astonishingly low numbers.

Given Barrett’s propensity to close out the year strong and Randle’s second breakout season, it’s easy to imagine Brunson averaging closer to seven assists per game if not more once the calendar flips to April.

The Knicks have performed at a top-10 level so far this season, and they’ll continue to rely on big contributions from Jalen Brunson in order to stay there. Thankfully, it doesn’t appear that this is a flash in the pan. Brunson is the real deal, and it appears that he’s only getting better.

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