Outlining a 3-year plan for Leon Rose with the New York Knicks.
Leon Rose’s first regular season as president of basketball operations is finally about to start nine months after being hired by the New York Knicks. While it might seem that he will be given plenty of time and leeway to fix the team, the reality is that he’s been under pressure since the moment the ink dried on his contract. James Dolan has given the heads of basketball operations an average of three years to show results.
While on the surface that might seem fair, the reality is that it hasn’t proven to be enough time. Part of the reason is that the new president is usually inheriting a mess that needs to be cleaned up. That by itself takes 1-to-2 seasons to accomplish.
So it’s no coincidence that the most aggressive win-now moves tend to happen in Year 3 of a rebuild. We saw Phil Jackson spend over $120MM in 2016 free agency to sign Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee. Jackson also traded for Derrick Rose, taking on the last year of his contract, $21MM. These moves happened because it was his third year.
In the summer of 2019, Steve Mills’ plan to sign star free agents failed, but instead of shifting to a plan focused on building around R.J. Barrett and Mitchell Robinson, he did the opposite. The pressure to save his job compelled him to sacrifice player development in an attempt to make the playoffs. He signed 7 free agents, 4 of whom played the same position, power forward.
So Rose has to be aware of this and have a 3-year plan. The good news for Rose is that he is inheriting the best situation a new team president has had since Dave Checketts took over in 1991. The team has cap space, young talent, and draft capital. The only thing missing is a star player. That is were Rose hopes to leverage his relationships in order to lure some to New York.
Marc Berman of the New York Post reported that Rose was trying to acquire high-priced veteran players in order to accelerate the rebuild, but no one wanted to come. The very reason Dolan hired Rose was to do just that. So while most fans weren’t expecting big moves this offseason, in Dolan’s eyes, Rose is 0 for 1.
Rose’s Plan Year 1 (2020-21 Season): Set the foundation
The Knicks approach this season is simple: develop young players and put a more competitive product on the court. Right now the team doesn’t have enough assets to trade for a star to put alongside Mitchell Robinson and R.J. Barrett. Also, neither has developed to the point that a star free agent would want to play with them.
While we don’t believe the Knicks are going to purposely tank, both Phil Jackson and Steve Mills were allowed one tank season. Phil used it in his first season, drafting Kristaps Porzingis (KP) 4th overall in 2015. Mills tanked in his second season after KP got hurt, which resulted in R.J. Barrett being selected with the 3rd pick in 2019 draft. If Rose is going to have a losing season, it has to be this one, especially since the 2021 draft is projected to be loaded with talent.
Even though the Knicks didn’t make any major moves in the offseason, it doesn’t mean they are done. I expect there will be a push for a disgruntled star. Victor Oladipo, for one, will be approaching free agency. James Harden and Bradley Beal might also be put on the trading block if their teams have disappointing seasons. Those are just a few names that quickly come to mind. So look for Leon Rose to take another swing for a star before the season is over.
But in order to do that he needs some of the young players to develop. Below is the list of players that need to be developed sorted by priority.
- R.J. Barrett – potential all-star
- Mitchell Robinson – potential all-star
- Obi Toppin – core player
- Kevin Knox – potential core player/trade asset
- Frank Ntilikina -potential core player/trade asset
- Dennis Smith Jr. (DSJ) – trade asset
- Immanuel Quickley – rotation player
- Ignas Brazdeikis – rotation player/trade asset
Year 2 Plan (2021-22 Season): Start building on foundation
If Year 1 goes as planned, then Mitch and R.J. will be rising stars, Obi Toppin will have a promising rookie season, another one of the young players will pop and the team will also have a lottery pick.
Expectations for the summer of 2021 will be be sky high as Robinson will be entering his 4th season, Barrett his 3rd and Toppin his 2nd. If Knox turns it around, he will only be 22-years-old as he enters the final year of his rookie contract.
If one of the point guards pops, Frank or DSJ, then they’ll have a player entering his 5th season at the position. That is a team that is ready to win. The Knicks can then be in the market for a dynamic playmaker to be the engine of their offense. Potential targets will be:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (age26) – free agent
- Victor Oladipo (age 29) – free agent
- Bradley Beal (age 28) – trade
- Joel Embiid (age 27) – trade, CAA client
- James Harden (age 32) – trade
- Jrue Holiday (age 31) – free agent, player option
Year 2 expectations are simply to make the playoffs, win at least 41 games with a roster built for sustained winning.
Year 3 Plan (2022-23 Season): Become a contender
Entering Year 3, expectations will be to win at least 50 games and make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. In order to meet those expectations, Rose needs to have secured an All-Star to complement his homegrown core.
Below are some players the Knicks might target:
- Devin Booker (age 25) – trade, CAA client
- Karl-Anthony Towns (age 25) – trade, CAA client
- Bradley Beal (age 29) – free agent, player option
- Zack LaVine (age 27) – free agent
- James Harden (age 33) – free agent, player option
- Russell Westbrook (age 33) – free agent, player option
The New York Edge
The biggest advantage Rose will have is the Knicks’ financial muscle. Exceeding the salary cap in order to have a championship contender won’t be an issue. Aside from the Warriors and Clippers, the Knicks are the only other team with the financial resources to not be deterred by the luxury tax. Even the Lakers can’t compete with the Knicks when it comes to finances, as they are one of the last mom & pop shops left in the NBA.
While Rose didn’t sign a star player, he is the first team president to assemble an All-Star front office and coaching staff, something Knick fans have been clamoring for. So his relationships matter.
As for acquiring talent on the court… What looks abundantly clear is the best path to acquiring a star is via trade. Aside from Giannis, most of the other star free agents will be at the end of their primes. So one thing to watch carefully is Mitchell Robinson’s development. Two of Rose’s former star clients are centers he wouldn’t mind trading for, he just needs Robinson gives him a reason to.
Let’s hope Leon Rose is the leader that finally ends the Knicks’ playoff drought and brings stability to New York.