Four ways the New York Knicks can become their own universe in the NBA.
I was texting with my boss, Knicks twitter legend @JeffreyBellone (JB), about the franchise’s approach to free agency under New York Knicks owner James Dolan. I made the observation that the Knicks spend money like a big market team, but cater to player agents like a small market team.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand maintaining relationships is part of the game, but it seems like the Knicks are willing to let player agents dictate management decisions. It got me thinking, it shouldn’t be this way.
The Universe Concept
Then I remembered something MLB owner Hal Steinbrenner once said when the Yankees were getting trolled by Red Sox fans. The Beantown faithful were claiming they were now America’s team and that Red Sox nation had overtaken Yankee nation. Steinbrenner scoffed at the idea and said that while the Red Sox might have a nation, the Yankees had their own universe. When you compare the value of each franchise, he was right, it’s not even close.
But could the Knicks have their own universe? While that sounds ludicrous on it’s surface, it’s actually not when you dig into it.
With Tom Thibodeau now set to lead New York into their next chapter, it’s a good time to take a step back and look at how the franchise is positioned relative to the rest of the league, and why the Knicks could soon become the powerhouse their city name suggests.
1) NBA Cities Comparison
When you look at NBA cities by metro area, it’s alarming how large the discrepancy is between New York City and the 2nd largest metro area, Los Angeles. In fact, if you combined the markets of the NBA’s two most historically relevant franchises, the Los Angeles Lakers (13.2MM) and the Boston Celtics (4.87MM), they would still be smaller than the New York City market, 19.2MM vs. 18.1MM.
U.S. Metro Area population for 2019:
- #1. New York City – 19.2MM
- #2. Los Angeles – 13.2MM
- #3. Chicago – 9.46MM
- #11. Boston – 4.87MM
This data doesn’t even account for all the transplanted New Yorkers around the country, like myself, or fans outside the U.S.. The Knicks, despite all of their flaws, are one of the few teams with a global fan base. I regularly chat with my pal @MrAlexCollins in Ireland or with Knick fans in Germany, the UK, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, etc.
Let’s not even talk about TV & streaming ratings. While the Lakers are the crown jewel of the NBA, the league’s ratings took a hit when LeBron James went out West to join them. The fact is that most fans can’t stay up late enough to watch the Lakers play.
I recently saw ‘Requiem for the Big East’ on ESPN and they spoke about how the conference became a powerhouse overnight because of their TV network. While they got huge ratings in the highly-populated northeastern cities, they also did well on the West Coast, as many kids in California would come home from school to watch Big East games since they started at 4PM PST, before the Pac-10 games that started at 7PM PST. It’s no wonder why so many NBA players from California, such as Brandon Jennings, grew up rooting for the Knicks.
Most Valuable Sports Teams in the World
When you look at the list of the most valuable franchises in the world that is published annually by Forbes , you will see that last year they had the Knicks ranked 5th at $4B behind the following franchises:
- Dallas Cowboys (NFL) – $5B
- New York Yankees (MLB) – $4.6B
- Real Madrid (Soccer) – $4.24B
- Barcelona (Soccer) – $4.02B
- New York Knicks (NBA) – $4B
Let that sink in for a moment. Despite all the losing and ridicule the Knicks get from the media, they are not only more valuable that the Lakers ($3.7B) and Warriors ($3.5B), they are more valuable than all the other NFL and soccer teams in the world with the exception of the four listed above.
That is insane!
Now imagine what the team would be worth if they actually generated some playoff revenue. Or if they won another world championship. The merchandise sales alone would break records.
Future outlook
When you look at the future, it’s extremely bright for the Knicks. While Forbes hasn’t updated their valuation list for all sports teams this year, they did release their latest NBA ranking in February. At the time they still had the Knicks ranked 1st, as their value increased 15% to $4.6B despite not landing a superstar in free agency or trading for one like the Lakers did (Anthony Davis).
The NFL is still king in the U.S. by a long shot; however, the outlook for the sport isn’t as bright as basketball. It’s appeal globally can only grow so much. It’s hard for kids across the world to play American football. Then there are the health concerns that have resulted in lower participation in the sport. That is why basketball will remain firmly entrenched as the second most popular sport in the world after soccer.
When you look at popularity by age demographic, the future looks great according to a poll ran by analytics firm MarketCast, which is referenced in the Forbes article.
The NFL is the most popular sport among fans 35 years of age, and highest for those in the age group 35-49 at 77%.
However, the favorite sport of younger fans is basketball. Fans aged 18-34 prefer the NBA (41%) slightly more than the NFL (38%). The youngest demographic, fans 13-17, prefer basketball by a greater margin: NBA (57%) to NFL (13%). Then there is baseball, whose fan base is dying, with 40% of sports fans 50 years of age of older preferring America’s past time. However, it decreases to single digits for the younger demographics.
So while the Yankees are currently worth more than the Knicks, it’s inevitable that they will fall from their #2 overall ranking. The Knicks, by default, will surpass the Yankees. There is also a version of the future where the New York Knicks could be the most valuable franchise in the world. Again, let that sink in.
Message to Adam Silver and James Dolan
Mr. Silver, one of your franchises has the chance to become the most valuable sports franchise in the world. That by itself will increase the value of all the franchises in the NBA.
The reality is that the Knicks are your best chance at growth. The Lakers are one of the last mom-and-pop shops in the league. They are owned by the Buss family that derives most of their wealth from owning the team.
Let’s not forget the crown jewel of the NBA applied for government assistance (PPP) which is meant to help small businesses. Plus, the future looks concerning because they went all in to win now with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The same goes for the Warriors.
I’m not saying you need to do the Knicks any favors, just don’t get in their way. The last time the lottery ping pong balls were kind to us was in 1985.
As for James Dolan, what is going on?
The silver lining of the last 20 years of your leadership is that all the failures cannot derail the value of your franchise. Pressure to succeed is just an illusion. What the media says is insignificant. Next time you feel the urge to take shortcuts and do another “get good quick” plan, stop and think of the big picture.
The only question you should ask yourself is, “Am I risking setting the team back just to win a press conference?”
The reality is that the Knicks don’t even need to prove they are a great organization to attract players, they just need to show they are not a dysfunctional one. According to Forbes, the name on the front of your jersey is worth more that the name on the back. So anytime you get anxious or feel stressed, just tell yourself “Knicks Universe” to regain perspective.