Were the Knicks right to sit on the sidelines during free agency?

Were the New York Knicks smart in staying away from high-priced free agents this offseason?

Much has been made about the New York Knicks‘ subdue offseason. For some reason, people were expecting Leon Rose to acquire some big name players just because they have cap space. This stance is odd when you consider the fans’ point of view is the complete opposite; most view this season as one dedicated to the development of the young players.

What is even odder about the critique from the local media is that the Knicks have signed high-priced free agents in three of the last four offseasons before this one. Each of those summer spending sprees has not worked out for the Knicks. In fact, all those bad contracts have only set the team back. Those signings have been an albatross across the team’s neck.

Below are the major long-term signings the team has made in the last 5 offseasons.

• 2016 – Joakim Noah – 4 yrs/$72M & Courtney Lee – 4 yrs/$48M
• 2017 – Tim Hardaway Jr. – 4 yrs/$71M
• 2019 – Julius Randle – 3 yrs/$62M

The Knicks ended up releasing Noah and stretching his contract. He is still on the books through the 2021-22 season at $6.4M per year. Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway Jr. were attached to the Kristaps Porzingis trade as salary dumps. This resulted in the Knicks choosing cap space over actual assets like productive players or more draft picks. Then there is Julius Randle, who everyone is hoping gets traded, especially now that the franchise has drafted his replacement, Obi Toppin.

But before we come down too hard on the Knicks, lets look at how the rest of the NBA has done with high-priced free agent signings during the same period of time.

2016 Free Agency

This was by far the worst summer in terms of free agent signings. The salary cap increased almost 33 percent and teams went crazy with the newfound salary cap space.

As you can see below, almost all these signings, with the exception of Kevin Durant to the Warriors (at a discount) and Al Horford to the Celtics, have backfired.

Most of the players on this list ended up getting traded or released. The most egregious signing was Chandler Parson by the Grizzlies for $98.5 million over 4 years. If most teams could go back in team, they would have offered less money and years to the players they signed that summer.

1. Kevin Durant signs with Warriors – 2 yrs/$54MM – Great
2. Al Horford signs with Celtics – 4 yrs/$113MM– Good
3. Dwyane Wade signs with Bulls – 2 yrs/$48MM – Bad
4. Harrison Barnes signs with Mavericks – 4 yrs/$94MM– Solid
5. Dwight Howard signs with Hawks – 3 yrs/$70.5MM – Bad
6. Chandler Parsons signs with Grizzlies – 4 yrs/$98.5MM – Horrible
7. Ryan Anderson signs with Rockets – 4 yrs/$80MM – Bad
8. Bismack Biyombo signs with Magic – 4 yrs/$72MM – Horrible
9. Kent Bazemore signs with Hawks – 4 yrs/$70MM – Horrible
10. Evan Turner signs with Blazers – 4 yrs/$70MM – Horrible
11. Ian Mahinmi signs with Wizards – 4 yrs/$64MM – Horrible
12. Jeremy Lin signs with Nets – 3 yrs/$36MM – Bad
13. Aaron Afflalo signs with Kings – 2 yrs/$25MM – Bad

2017 Free Agency

There were a lot less high-priced free agent signings in 2017 as most teams maxed out their cap space the summer before. You will notice that there were only two players that signed for more than $10 million per year that got a 4-year contract, Gordon Hayward and Tim Hardaway Jr.

Hayward’s effectiveness in Boston was hindered by a horrific injury, so he was not able to live up to his contract. Then of course there is Tim Hardaway Jr. who got a contract from Steve Mills that was way over market value.

1. Gordon Hayward signs with Celtics – 4 yrs/$128MM – Bad
2. Paul Millsap signs with Nuggets – 2 yrs/$61MM – Good
3. Danilo Gallinari signs with Clippers – 3 yrs/$65MM – Good
4. Jeff Teague signs with Wolves – 3 yrs/$57MM – Bad 
5. George Hill signs with Kings – 3 yrs/$57MM – Bad
6. Tim Hardaway Jr. signs with Knicks – 4 yrs/$71MM – Horrible

The best signings from this class were Paul Millsap and Danilo Gallinari, which isn’t saying much. Millsap is a very good player, however was an overpay, but at least his contract was only for 2 years. Gallinari’s first year with Clippers was unproductive due to injury, so he was only good for two of the three years of his contract.

2018 Free Agency

The effects of the summer of 2016 could still be felt in 2018 as only two of the free agents that changed teams signed for more than $10 million per season. Both signings have worked out: LeBron James to the Lakers and Zach LaVine to the Bulls.

1. LeBron James signs with Lakers – 4 yrs/$153MM – Great
2. Zach LaVine signs with Bulls – 4 yr/$78MM – Good

However, let’s not forget that LeBron James signing didn’t work out right away for the Lakers; it took some time before they were able to trade for his friend and fellow Klutch Sports client, Anthony Davis, to turn their roster into a championship team.

As for LaVine, it’s not so much that his signing was great, but more that it wasn’t bad. While he has been productive, there aren’t teams knocking down the Bulls’ door to acquire him.

2019 Free Agency

After several seasons of modest activity in the free agent market, the NBA experienced a seismic wave of movement in one summer. We saw some of the game’s biggest stars change teams: Kevin Durant went to the Nets; Kawhi Leonard signed with the Clippers; and Jimmy Butler with the Heat.

While it’s too earlier to tell how most of these deals will turn out, we already know of one that was horrible, the Al Horford signing with the Sixers. Philadelphia had to compensate the Thunder in order to get his contract off their books.

As for the others: the success of the Nets signings will depend largely on how the next three seasons go now that both players are healthy; for the Clippers, the Kawhi signing has to be viewed as a success despite the disappointing end to the season. He played great and the team was doing well before the pandemic interrupted the season. The Butler signing is also a success as the team made the Finals. That alone will justified the signing even if he is not as production in the last two years of his contract.

1. Kevin Durant signs with Nets – 4 yrs/$164MM – TBD
2. Kemba Walker signs with Celtics – 4 yrs/$141MM – Not looking good
3. Jimmy Butler signs with Heat – 4 yrs/$141MM – Good
4. Kawhi Leonard signs with Clippers – 3 yrs/$103MM – Great
5. Kyrie Irving signs with Nets – 4 yrs/$136MM – TBD
6. D’Angelo Russell signs with Warriors – 4 yrs/$117MM – TBD
7. Al Horford signs with 76ers – 4 yrs/$109MM – Horrible
8. Malcolm Brogdon signs with Pacers – 4 yrs/$85MM – Good
9. Julius Randle signs with Knicks – 3 yrs/$62MM – Bad
10. Terry Rozier signs with Hornets – 3 yrs/$57MM – Not looking good
11. Bojan Bogdanovic signs with Pacers – 4 yrs/$85MM – Good
12. Ricky Rubio signs with Suns – 3 yrs/$51MM – Good

2020 Free Agency

The 2020 offseason was expected to be very quiet as the free agent class wasn’t great and there weren’t many teams with significant amounts of cap space. There was also the economic impact from Covid-19 which was expected to make teams tighten their spending.

However, the opposite happened: more free agent spending occurred than expected. While it’s too early to know how good some of these deals will turn out to be, there are a few that look like they will turn out bad.

1. Gordon Hayward signs Hornets – 4 yrs/$120MM – Not looking good
2. Danilo Gallinari signs with Hawks – 3 yrs/$61MM – TBD
3. Jerami Grant signs with Pistons – 3 yrs/$60MM – Not looking good
4. Bogdan Bogdanovic signs with Hawks – 4 yrs/$72MM – Good
5. Christian Wood signs with Rockets – 3 yrs/$41MM – Good

Conclusion

While some are upset that the Knicks didn’t make any splashy moves, it looks like the franchise did the prudent thing. As we just saw, most of the free agent signings that are not for a Top-5 player haven’t worked out. Of the 40 free agent signings that were signed for more than $10MM per year over multiple years in the past 5 offseasons, only three are considered to be great signings: Kevin Durant to the Warriors, LeBron James to the Lakers and Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers.

There were only 11 signings that were considered good deals. The majority were either bad or horrible, and some of the TBDs are not looking good either. Even the Celtics, who are known for being patient and prudent, looked like they missed on two of their three high-priced signings in Hayward and Walker.

The lesson is that even though free agency is appealing because you can make your team better immediately without having to give up assets, it’s still risky. The fact of the matter is, unless you sign a superstar, you are mostly likely overpaying for a player that had his best seasons for his old team. It looks like the Knicks actually did the right thing for a change.