How do the New York Knicks start building a championship caliber roster?
While it might seem crazy to talk about the New York Knicks‘ championship aspirations – following their sixth straight season with a winning percentage lower than .400 – every rebuild starts somewhere. Remember, before the Warriors were the darlings of the NBA, they were the Warriors, a franchise that had won one playoff series in 21 years.
The path toward greatness starts with the right mindset.
A lot of people don’t know this but Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra’s father, Jon, is one of the greatest marketing executives in sports. He helped grow the revenue streams for the Blazers, Kings and Nets. He was so smart that he was asked to consult teams on player personnel decisions.
He wrote a book I highly recommend called “Marketing Outrageously”. In the book he describes his guiding principle to achieving unthinkable results. He simply asks himself the same question everyday: what is it going to take to win a championship this year?
For the Knicks, the answer to that question is multi-faceted. They need to acquire at least two star players, a true point guard and a stretch big. That is a long list, practically a new starting five. While the Knicks have tons of cap space this offseason, they can’t buy all that in free agency, especially in this class. They also don’t have the assets to fill most of these needs via trade.
While it’s not possible to completely build a championship team this offseason, the hard work must begin. In this article, I examine how the Knicks can answer the question: how can we win a championship in 2021-22?
Building the Knicks into contenders: Show incremental progress
The biggest complaint of how this past season unfolded was that the Knicks didn’t win games or develop their young players. For most fans, 2019-20 is considered a lost season.
Making the most of next season starts by putting a product on the court that is respectable. That means a well-coached team that plays hard and has an identity. The next thing sounds crazy, but it isn’t if you understand the NBA and this market. It’s not in the organization’s best interest to win too many games if its based on model that is not sustainable.
Case in point, think back to the 2013-14 season, The Knicks were coming off their most successful campaign in over 10 years, the 2012-13 team won 54 games. However, that team had peaked because most of their players were older veterans. You had a 40-year-old Jason Kidd starting in the backcourt. He literally retired during the playoff series against the Pacers.
Needless to say the expectations were ratcheted up for the 2013-14 season and the team fell short. Coach Woodson was fired and the front office and coaching staff were turned over.
So unless the Knicks build the team around young stars, it’s in Thibodeau’s best interest to show improvement, the right way, but not overachieve.
A great win total to shoot for is 33. It’s an improvement over the prior season, and it also would be the first time the Knicks would lose less than 50 games since 2013-14. It would show the team is ready to take the next step as it approaches 2021 free agency, while still having a chance at a top prospect in the lottery. The 2021 draft is projected to be one of the best in recent years.
Turning the Knicks into contenders: Build the Foundation
The Knicks need Mitchell Robinson and R.J. Barrett to take a leap in their development and show they are viable starters with All-Star potential. That is a reasonable expectation considering what we have seen from them both. Especially when you consider how last season’s poor roster construction hindered both of them.
If Robinson can prove he is more than a rim runner by developing some semblance of a post game and finally show us the 3-point shot we have only seen on social media clips, it will elevate his status to a potential franchise-changing player. Now, if he can also show he is a serviceable passer, the sky is the limit. A very good season for Robinson would be if he could average 15 ppg, 10 rpg, 2.0 apg and 2 blocks per game.
As for Barrett, we know he needs to improve his outside shooting. But he also needs to tighten his handle and passing. If that happens, then you could use him in different lineups to exploit mismatches. A great season for Barrett would be if he could average 19 points, 4.0 assists and 6.0 rebounds on a true shooting percentage of 54%, which would be a 7% improvement over his rookie campaign.
Both Robinson and Barrett could develop into starters on a championship team, but hoping either could be the third star by 2021-22 might be a stretch.
Beyond the cornerstone pieces already on the Knicks roster, the 2020 NBA Draft offers an opportunity to add another young piece. While this year’s class is not projected to have any true top-end talent, there are always good players in every draft. If the Knicks could land at least one player with starter potential, then it will be considered a success.
A player like Devin Vassell would be a nice addition for the Knicks, or even someone like a Kira Lewis Jr. or Patrick Williams, who has a higher upside. If New York can somehow land one of the future All-Stars that will come out of this draft, even better. But in the end, the player Leon Rose and his scouting department draft this season needs to be part of the rotation, especially if they are eventually used as an asset for a future trade.
Building the Knicks into contenders: Develop the entire roster
R.J. Barrett and Mitchell Robinson have been identified as the best of the young players, but doesn’t mean the team should give up on their other former lottery picks. Frank is not a scorer, but that doesn’t mean he can’t develop into a valuable player. The Warriors rely heavily on Draymond Green and the Celtics on Marcus Smart. Having a player who can help orchestrate the offense and lock down the opposing team’s best wing player is invaluable. If Frank can finally break through, he can be the player New York needs to get their defense to a championship level.
As for Kevin Knox, he is still very young, barely 21-years-old and is full of potential. A successful 2020-21 campaign for him would be turning into a reliable rotation player that can provide scoring and outside shooting. While is 3-point shooter regressed last season, he did shoot 34% in his rookie campaign. The eye test says he is a good shooter. His goal for last season was to shoot 40% from beyond the arc. There is no reason he can’t come close to that if he gets enough opportunities going forward. Success for the Knicks would be if they can get Knox to turn into a stretch 4, a position that is not as demanding and would fill a need the Knicks have.
While Dennis Smith Jr. (DSJ) is considered a lost cause with no trade value, he is still an immense talent whose issues are mostly between the ears. If coach Thibodeau, a former point guard, and recently-hired development guru Johnnie Bryant can somehow get through to him, the outlook on the Kristaps Porzingis trade doesn’t look so bleak.
If the Knicks can turn DSJ back into a viable prospect, then he could have some trade value. At the very least, it would validate the coaching hires made this offseason.
Building the Knicks into contenders: Add the right veterans
Since there aren’t any stars in the upcoming free agent class that the Knicks can realistically acquire, their priority should be in landing a few quality role players on good contracts. They can accomplish this using cap space or via trade, but it’s important to add veterans who will not only help develop their young players, but will also improve the outlook for the team. No star player wants to play for a franchise full of unproven players. Getting a couple of stop-gap veterans and nice rotational pieces this offseason would be key.
For me, Mike Conley Jr. makes the most sense. He is in an expiring contract and he is more of a role player at this stage in his career. He would be a nice player for the young point guards to learn from and someone that would put the other players in positions to succeed. Having Conley replace Payton as the vet point guard would be a huge upgrade.
Another player to consider is Bogdan Bogdanovic. If the Knicks could sign him in restricted free agency, he would be a huge upgrade over Wayne Ellington. Bogdanovic is entering his prime, can fill the complementary shooter role and play multiple positions.
The Knicks still need shooters, even if they did sign Bogdanovic, but they already have one on the roster. What was said about Bogdanovic also applies to Damyean Dotson. He is tied with Frank Ntilikina for title of longest-tenured Knick. Chemistry is important and he is a proven commodity. Keeping Dotson means you can move on from Bullock and Ellington, while having Bogdanovic and Dotson as your floor-spacing shooters is an upgrade.
Building the Knicks into contenders: 2021 Offseason
If the Knicks win around 33 games next season based on incremental improvement, they will still be in the lottery and will know where they will pick before the offseason begins. Just because the franchise hasn’t moved up in the draft since 1985, doesn’t mean it will never happen. If they can finally break their streak of falling back in the lottery, the 2021 Draft is the one to do it. It is projected to be stacked with talent. Becoming a title contender requires a little luck. Landing a stud like a Cade Cunningham would open up a ton of possibilities for the Knicks.
Beyond the draft and players on the NBA roster, it is also important to utilize Westchester as a development environment. We saw Iggy Brazdeikis’s value increase just by getting run in the G-League. The organization also has three prospects in Jared Harper, Lamar Peters and Kenny Wooten that are intriguing. Having at least one of them do well will validate the Knicks’ development program and provide some nice cost-effective players they can plug into the rotation.
If the Knicks go into the summer of 2021 with two emerging players in R.J. and Mitch, plus a promising rookie and two viable assets in Ntilikina and Knox, with a nice veteran or two on the roster after a 30+ win season, they will get serious consideration from free agents and stars looking to sign somewhere new or be traded.
If they finally get lucky in the lottery and move up, they can become serious contenders for Giannis in free agency. They would also have the assets to trade for a Devin Booker type star and a lottery pick to draft a potential star like Cade Cunningham.
The sky’s the limit for the Knicks. But it all starts by understanding what they need to do today to win a championship sooner than expected.