Roy Hibbert’s Role to be Diminished, Possible Opt-Out? If So, Should the New York Knicks Pursue?

RT @NatJNewell: Asked about Larry Bird's comments, Hibbert's agent said: "We will respond at the appropriate time." http://t.co/ahRYCCZzCZ
— IndyStar (@indystar) April 18, 2015

According to Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star, the Indiana Pacers are planning to change their style of play. This may be an issue for the 7’2”, 278 lbs. Roy Hibbert… Hibbert has only one year remaining on his contract, with a player option set to make $15,514,031 next season. Pacers President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird does not seem phased by that fact and sounds prepared to move forward.

"“We assume he’s going to be back and if he comes back, we’re probably going to play another style,” “And I can’t guarantee him anything. He’s going to have to earn it.”"

Indiana’s head coach Frank Vogel may use more small-ball lineups, which could mean less minutes for Hibbert.

"“We’ll have to see how it all plays out and what the roster ultimately looks like, but there’s a possibility that Roy’s role will be diminished, if we’re trying to play faster and trying to play smaller,” “But a lot of stuff is going to happen this summer. We’ll see how the roster shapes out coming into next season.”"

Indiana has been consistently grinding out games for years now. The Pacers has had some success with this approach, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in consecutive years before not qualifying for the Playoffs this season.

Season Pace Rank PPG Rank Playoff Results

2014-2015 95.5 18^th 97.3 23^rd N/A

2013-2014 94.9 19^th 96.7 23^rd Lost in Eastern Conference Final 4-2

2012-2013 92.84 24^th 94.7 22^ndLost in Eastern Conference Final 4-3

Vogel though did defend Hibbert in the same conversation.

"“He’s got to work on his craft, like all of us do, and he’ll do that. He’ll come in and work hard in the offseason and try to improve. I think some of his numbers are down because his minutes were down, so I think it’s a little bit misleading. I thought he was still a great rim protector for us, which is his primary goal. I do think the league adjusted some to the basket attacks against Roy Hibbert in terms of challenging him less and thinking extra pass more and playing shooters against him to bring him away from the basket. Those are reasons why he was a little bit less effective this year as well, it’s not just about Roy’s performance. Roy gives 100 percent effort all the time and his purity and his care factor is as high as anybody on the team. I think it’s inappropriate to dump on him, to mention his numbers are down.”"

Hibbert’s minutes have diminished a little but what was most disappointing was that the big man did not step up with Paul George‘s absence. George only played six games this season due to a gruesome lower right leg fracture injury.

Season Minutes Played Usage %

2014-2015 25.3 21.7

2013-2014 29.7 19.5

2012-2013 28.7 22.5

Hibbert this season averaged 10.6 points and 7.1 rebounds despite the opportunity for a larger role with George’s absence due to injury. This may be a reason Indiana was open to trading Hibbert this past season. With trade rumors this past season and the impending change in the organization’s philosophy on style of play, the Pacers are basically begging Hibbert to opt out of his player option.

If Hibbert were to decide to opt out and be a free agent this summer, should New York pursue?

It was just a couple of years ago that Hibbert literally posterized Anthony and the Knicks.

Got 2 of these now. 1 from a real good friend here in Indy. The other from the @Pacers Def man cave material. pic.twitter.com/YhBE2JaRVT
— Roy Hibbert (@Roy_Meets_World) June 7, 2013

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Now it is true that Hibbert has not been the same player this year, wither it is because of George’s absence or a decline in skill is still a big question mark. Hibbert +/- has dropped off significantly this season without George hounding and funneling players towards Hibbert.

Season +/- Rank

2014-2015 -0.8 really shitty…

2013-2014 +4.4 34^th

2012-2013 +4.9 20^th

Hibbert was a real difference maker prior to last year. To put in perspective just how great Hibbert’s numbers are, in 2013-2014 Hibbert’s +/- of +4.4 hovered around players like Russell Westbrook (+4.8) and Kevin Love (+4.6), and were better than legendary players such as Dirk Nowitzki (+4) and Tim Duncan (+4). The year Hibbert broke all Knicks’ fans heart with the destructive block on Anthony, he was ranked 20^th overall in +/-. Hibbert ranked higher than teammate Paul George (+4.6) and New York Knick superstar Carmelo Anthony (+4.6).

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Now these +/- numbers make it look like Hibbert is extremely reliant being paired up with a great defensive perimeter player, but Hibbert’s diff % numbers says otherwise. Diff% which is defined as – The difference between the normal field goal percentage of a shooter through the season and the field goal percentage when the defensive player is guarding the shooter. A good defensive number will be negative because the defensive player is guarding the shooter. A good defensive number will be negative because the defensive player holds their opponent to a lower field goal percentage than normal. Hibbert actually had a better overall diff % this past season (-6 diff%) than the previous year (-5.3 diff%) with an elite defender like George by his side, as per NBA.com.

With or without the assistance of George, Hibbert is a great interior defender. Hibbert’s length and size just completely changes any player’s path towards the rim. Hibbert has a -12.1 diff% within six feet and a -10.6 diff% within ten feet of the rim. Anthony and the Knicks desperately need a defensive anchor like Hibbert.

If Hibbert does become a free agent this summer, Phil Jackson and company should strongly pursue the perfect defensive complimentary player to Anthony. Especially since Jackson foolishly traded away Tyson Chandler last summer… a NBA Defensive Player of the Year who was a perfect complimentary player to Anthony already… Jackson should right that wrong this summer if possible.