Utilizing the Knicks Shooting Guards
Mar. 27, 2013; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony (7), shooting guard J.R. Smith (8) and small forward Iman Shumpert (21) smile on the court against the Memphis Grizzlies during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Knicks won 108-101. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports
The New York Knicks starting lineup for the upcoming season has been a topic of great discussion. Only two players were seemingly guaranteed starting spots coming into the preseason, Carmelo Anthony at one of the forward positions and Jose Calderon at point guard. As the preseason has continued, it seems that Samuel Dalembert will be the starting center given that he is the only true center on the roster. This leaves the starting shooting guard position and whichever forward position not used by Melo up for grabs.
The Knicks have several wing players that could be inserted into the starting shooting guard role, namely Iman Shumpert, Tim Hardaway Jr., and J.R. Smith. I believe that Smith and Shumpert should be starting, but determining which players start directly correlates to which position Melo plays.
Carmelo Anthony starting at the small forward position would be far from surprising because coming into the 2012-2013 season, 84 percent of Melo’s career floor time was spent at the 3. This would leave the power forward position as the last remaining opening, a void likely to be filled by Quincy Acy. Acy is an undersized energy guy with a limited offensive game, but he makes an impact with his hustle points. The Knicks would start Acy and Dalembert down low with Jason Smith, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Andrea Bargnani filling in off the bench. With Melo starting at small forward, only one guard spot is left for Smith, Shumpert, or Hardaway. However, if Melo plays at the 4, then Acy would be removed from the starting equation, leaving two spots on the wing.
Carmelo Anthony has started at power forward for 66% of his floor time the past two seasons. Those two seasons treated Melo very well. He won his first scoring title after averaging 28.7 points per game, posted his two highest player efficiency ratings (24.8 and 24.4), and recorded his two highest win shares (9.5 and 10.7).
“Carmelo Anthony is simply a more effective basketball player when playing as a power forward”
His ability to blow past big 4’s and overpower smaller ones makes him a matchup nightmare. Given the amount of time Melo will spend in the post, perimeter wings would complement him best.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the one of the available wings. Deemed virtually untouchable by the Knicks organization, Hardaway is viewed as a big part of the team’s future after following up his selection with the 24th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft with an impressive rookie season in which he made All Rookie First Team. However, Hardaway’s defense last season was nothing to write home about as he struggled to keep other guards in front of him. Thankfully, Hardaway has made an effort to improve his defense and also step up as a leader during the Summer League. He has the potential to be a solid starter at the NBA level and after bulking up in the offseason while improving on D, Hardaway has a lot of room for growth. That being said, this season he will be best utilized as an offensive sparkplug off the bench while the rest of his game develops.
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Shumpert has played the majority of his minutes at small forward and shooting guard during his first 3 seasons and finds himself in a contract year. He hopes to make strides in his 4th NBA season after a disappointing 2013-2014 campaign. Still only 24 years of age, his play this season will determine his future with the team as it appears unlikely that Shump will receive a contract extension before the deadline this Friday. Through his first 3 seasons, Shumpert has shown flashes of strong play, but ultimately he has failed to consistently put it all together, especially on the offensive side of the ball where he averaged a career low 6.7 points per game last season. Shumpert regressed from averaging 40 percent from 3 in 2012-2013 (45 games) to 33 percent in 2013-2014 (74 games). Not all of this has been Shump’s fault because his usage rate of 13.5 last season ranked him 63rd out of 70 qualifying shooting guards, but then again he did shoot 37 percent from the field last year. The Knicks’ unwillingness to grant Shumpert an extension prior to the season (hoping to preserve as much cap room as possible for the 2015 free agent class) is logical considering Shumpert hasn’t proven that he is anymore then the next Tony Allen or Thabo Sefolosha. Despite his offensive struggles and inconsistent play on the defensive end, the Knicks should certainly start Shumpert. The team allowed 101.8 points per 100 plays with Shump on the floor vs. 111.1 points with him off the floor. This staggering difference is equal to the defense of the Chicago Bulls vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. Shumpert is expected to fit well into the triangle as a spot up wing shooter and won’t have to worry about creating his own shot, something he has struggled with during his short career. Additionally, Shumpert’s strong play this preseason is encouraging. Starting Iman Shumpert should be a priority for the Knicks regardless of what position Carmelo Anthony plays. A higher usage rate for Shump this year will help the team determine if he is still in their long term plans.
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The third and final shooting guard on the roster is J.R. Smith. The tenure of Smith in New York has been memorable to put it bluntly. Smith won the Sixth Man Award during the 2012-2013 season, his first full season in New York, after averaging 18.1 points per game off the bench. Smith regressed badly last year and became more known for his antics than strong play. However, a case can still be made for starting J.R. alongside Shumpert with Melo at the 4. Although Smith has acknowledged that he is having difficulty picking up the Triangle Offense, he also has made it clear that he wants to become a better team leader. Additionally, Phil Jackson has referred to Smith as the team’s greatest athlete. Smith has vocalized his desire to start over the past years, and despite a strong argument for leaving him in his 6th man role, the same argument helps validate his case for being in the starting lineup. The player efficiency rating (14.0) and win shares (3.7) of Smith during his down year this past season still were the highest of all Knicks guards. Smith shot the 3 ball better then Shumpert and Hardaway last year and will likely do the same if starting alongside Calderon and Melo, who will take attention off Smith and get him better shots. This also will prevent Smith from being the primary ball handler, usually a prerequiste from the head scratching plays Smith often made as a member of the second unit. Last season, Smith shot 45.6 percent of his catch and shoot tries (behind only Melo) vs. 33 percent of his pullup shots.
The role of Smith as the primary offensive option on the second unit is also no longer necessary with Amar’e Stoudemire expected to come of the bench. A case can certainly be made for keeping J.R. Smith on the bench but he has proven to also be more efficient when playing with the superior talent of the starting lineup. However, this presents the predicament of who to start at shooting guard if Melo ends up playing small forward, Shumpert or Smith?
Obviously lineups will shift throughout the season and during games as playing small ball has been mentioned. With all signs pointing to Melo wishing to play the 3, it is worth noting how Melo playing the 4 impacts the entire roster and the contributions of other players, notably the shooting guards. At this time Fisher has acknowledged that he is not sure about the starting lineup but we will know soon enough as the Knicks open against the Chicago Bulls tonight.