Mitchell Robinson is no longer an X factor for the New York Knicks, he is of vital importance. His offensive rebounding is off the charts, his screening elevates his teammates' shot making, and his rim protecting, combined with perimeter defense, has been exceptional. In the Eastern Conference Finals, his role, specifically his rebounding, will become even more important to New York's success.
In the second round against the Boston Celtics, Robinson averaged 3.8 offensive rebounds, 4.2 defensive rebounds, and 1 steal per game. He averaged only 4.7 points per game, but played a significant role in team offense through not only his rebounding but his screening as well.
In the second round, he generated 8.3 screen assist points per game, trailing only Jarrett Allen and Nikola Jokic. The difference is that both Allen and Jokic start for their teams, as well as play significantly more minutes than Robinson does.
No skill that Robinson brings to the table is more important than his offensive rebounding, though. IT was the leading factor in the Knicks averaging 17.7 second chance points per game in the second round against Boston. Against the Pacers, that will become even more important.
The importance will come not only from giving the Knicks another chance to score the basketball, but from limiting the Pacers' ability to get a defensive rebound and immediately get out into transition, something they have done quite a lot so far in the playoffs.
The Pacers love to play in transition
The Pacers are a force in transition. Per league tracking data, the Pacers are averaging 1.44 points per possession on offense when in transition. That mark trails only the Miami Heat in the playoffs, who barely played in transition in all, with only 50 playoff transition possessions.
The Pacers have four players who are generating at least 1.4 points per possession in transition in the playoffs. Myles Turner averages 1.5 points per possession, Pascal Siakam is at 1.46, Aaron Nesmith is at 1.43, and Andrew Nembhard is at 1.42, according to the NBA's public stats. Those are wildly efficient numbers, and a handful of transition plays could end up being the difference between a win and a loss in this series.
Mitch can limit those transition plays
The Pacers, as a team, are generating a whopping 1.51 points per possession on transition plays that start out with a defensive rebound. Indiana has plenty of good rebounders who are also able to handle the ball and run the floor, the perfect recipe for creating transition opportunities. Look at this play from Siakam, where he snags the rebound and then goes coast to coast for an easy two points.
Robinson battling Turner and Siakam for those rebounds will be a key battleground in this series, and it won't just be Robinson. Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns will have to chip in as well. Both Hart and Towns are pulling in over two offensive rebounds per game so far in the playoffs, and the Knicks will need even more of them this series if they are to get back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999.