After Mike Brown was hired by the Knicks to be their next head coach, some fans drew comparisons between Keon Ellis and Deuce McBride, worrying that McBride could be banished to the bench by Brown, just as Ellis was in Sacramento. Those fears should be put to rest, however, for the simple reason that McBride is much more risk-averse on defense than Ellis is.
One of the biggest mysteries with the Kings last season, prior to Brown getting fired, was the playing time Eliis was getting. Through December 27 of last season, the date Brown was dismissed, Ellis was only playing 19 minutes per game.
DJ Zullo of Knicks Film School was quick to point out in a tweet that McBride is much more disciplined than Ellis is on that end of the floor, so fans shouldn't worry about Brown losing trust in him. Diving into the numbers, it is clear to see that Zullo is right.
Evaluating McBride and Ellis on defense
Before getting too deep into the numbers, it is easy to see why fans made comparisons between the two players. Both are excellent defensive guards who are also more than capable of knocking down shots from the outside. Last year, Ellis shot 43.3 percent from three while averaging 1.5 steals per game with a Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +0.5.
Meanwhile, McBride knocked down 36.9 percent of his threes, on slightly higher volume, while averaging one steal per game and posting a Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +1.4. Composite metrics, like Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), help us evaluate things that are hard to evaluate, like defense.
Outside of blocks, steals, deflections, and defensive rebounds, it is hard to help how a player has impacted a game on defense, besides relying purely on your eyes, of course. So why are McBride's defensive composite metrics so much better? Part of it could come down to the risks they take.
Ellis takes a lot of risks on defense
League tracking data tracks something called defensive gambles. Basically, the stat looks at how often a defender takes a gamble to jump a passing lane to try to get a steal. Last season, Ellis ranked fourth in the NBA with 111 gambles on the defense, or 2.8 per 100 possessions.
McBride, on the other hand, averaged 63, or 1.9 per 100 possessions. The other interesting fact is how those gambles ended up. According to league tracking data, only 25 percent of Ellis' gambles ended up causing a turnover, the 11th-lowest percentage of any player who took at least 50 gambles last season.