After another come-from-behind win led by Jalen Brunson in Game 4, the New York Knicks find themselves in the driver's seat against the Boston Celtics. With a 3-1 series advantage, and Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury sidelining him for the foreseeable future, the 'Bockers are an overwhelming favorite to make the Eastern Conference Finals.
Wednesday's Game 5 is a must-win for New York anyway. The Indiana Pacers just made sure of it.
The Knicks must make sure the Pacers don't get more rest
By eliminating the Cleveland Cavaliers in just five games, the Pacers have ensured they'll get at least five days rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. That series will tip off on either Monday, May 19, or on Wednesday, May 21. It all depends on when the Knicks-Celtics series ends.
Close it out in Game 5, and New York is already looking at one day’s less rest compared to Indy. That itself is not ideal. But the situation gets worse if the Knicks play until a Game 6 on Friday, May 16, and even worse than that if they reach a Game 7, which would take place on Monday, May 19, and bumps the start of the conference finals to Wednesday, May 21.
The latter scenario is absolutely disastrous. The Pacers would be getting a full week off, while the Knicks would enter Game 1 after just one day’s rest. Though New York has proven to be one of the better squads coming off shorter breaks, it barely had time to breathe in between an ultra-physical Detroit Pistons series, and a matchup with the reigning champs that, despite the team’s 3-1 advantage, has required three exhaustive comebacks.
New York needs all the rest it can get as well
Finishing off Boston in five games also affords the Knicks some much-needed reset time of their own. All five of their starters rank in the top 10 of total minutes played entering Wednesday night’s matchup. That is an absurdly heavy workload.
Comparing it to Indiana’s player usage makes it look even heavier. Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard are the only Pacers who rank in the top 25 of total minutes logged.
Extended rest may not be a luxury on which Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau hangs his hat. And this group has done nothing if not prove its durability and resilience during the playoffs. But we have seen instances in which everybody—Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart—has looked positively gassed by the end of games.
Breaks in the clouds won’t be any easier to come by against the Pacers. They continue to play at warp speed. Just two playoff teams take a larger share of their field-goal attempts inside 18 seconds of the shot clock (Boston and Oklahoma City). Indiana is also fifth in the amount of time it spends operating in transition after grabbing a live rebound—and no offense averages more points per possession in those situations.
Statistically speaking, New York’s defense on the run is holding up. But it struggles to keep opponents out of transition in general. Out of the 20 teams that made the play-in and playoffs, the Knicks are 16th in the amount of time rival offenses spend on the break after they grab a live rebound.
It isn’t just about fast breaks, either. The Pacers make defenses work in the half-court with their screening patterns, and with Tyrese Haliburton’s ability to fly all over the place, even if he doesn’t have the ball. New York’s half-court defense has gotten the job done, but no set offense it’s faced so far is as inventive as the one employed by Indy.
The Knicks need to maximize their title chances in every way possible
This is not to say the Knicks are doomed if they don't get a prolonged breather before the Eastern Conference Finals. Nor do they profile as pushovers just because the Pacers play fast.
Detroit gave New York a taste of what happens when you face a team that can play with both speed and physicality. Indiana is cut from the same cloth.
Except the Pacers are more dynamic on offense. And their rotation is deeper. And their top-two players are better. And their coach, Rick Carlisle, is more willing throw aggressive curveballs.
Indiana is going to keep New York on its toes no matter what. The Knicks will have to adapt and adjust and respond accordingly. There is almost no scenario in which that's an easy task. But it'll be a much less daunting one if they maximize the amount of time they have to rest and prepare, something they can only do if they take care of business against the suddenly shorthanded Celtics in Game 5.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.