Knicks already revealed blueprint for a drama-free Hawks series

Most first-round predictions had the New York Knicks’ matchup with the Atlanta Hawks going six or seven games. Yet, there is a distinct chance it lasts only five, or winds up being a sweep. 

Because frankly, anything is possible when the Knicks win the turnover battle.

It doesn’t matter by how much, either.

The Knicks are basically unbeatable when they protect the ball

New York committed 11 turnovers in Game 1 to Atlanta’s 12. That's a small difference, but it’s one with huge implications. Including Game 1, the Knicks have now committed fewer turnovers than their opponent 45 times this season. Their record in those contests is 38-7. 

Winning over 84 percent of the time across such a large sample is insane. It is the rough equivalent of picking up 69 victories during an 82-game season. New York isn’t feasting on a bunch of colossal differentials, either. Twenty-five of these 45 contests saw it win the turnover battle by no more than three. Its record under this criteria is 21-4, the equivalent of—you guessed it—a 69-win pace. 

This is among the many, many benefits of having someone like Jalen Brunson run the show. For all the qualms people have with his decision-making, he can shoulder superhuman workloads without flitting away possessions willy-nilly. 

After this year, he has now on four occasions posted a usage rate above 27 with a turnover percentage of 10.5 or less. DeMar DeRozan, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, and Kyrie Irving are the only active players with more.

To that end, it isn’t unreasonable to hope or expect the Knicks to consistently win the turnover battle. Not even against the Hawks, who subsist on generating opponent mistakes. 

Winning the turnover battle is critical to quickly dispatching the Hawks

New York’s eleven turnovers in Game 1 are below its season average. It can’t hope to hover around there every game. Atlanta is too disruptive. It ranked sixth in opponent turnover percentage during the regular season, and was second overall after the All-Star break.

At the same time, just as the Hawks will force more turnovers, the Knicks have the ability to cut down on theirs. Four of their first-half turnovers in Game 1 came from Karl-Anthony. Three of them were the direct result of poor passes that had little to do with the defense. If he can tighten things up as New York funnels more of its top-of-the-key touches to him, the team’s margin for error grows even further.

This is a huge deal against the Hawks. Committing fewer turnovers means giving them fewer opportunities to get out in transition, where they thrive. They still push the pace after makes or dead balls, but the Knicks have more time to get their defense set in those scenarios. 

Limit Atlanta’s fast-break possessions, and you’re suddenly cooking with fish grease. Its half-court offense improved post-All-Star break, but is eminently solvable. Though Jalen Johnson is terrific, he doesn’t have as many in-between counters as other stars, and can be, under the right circumstances, neutralized by someone such as Josh Hart.

If Johnson doesn’t have it going, the Hawks become uncomfortably reliant on Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, and Dyson Daniels. That plays into the Knicks’ hands, as we saw in Game 1. 

So yeah, there could be a lot of series left to play. Then again, if New York continues to win the turnover battle, maybe not.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow