Trae Young getting traded to the Washington Wizards is supposedly great news for the New York Knicks. They will receive the Wiz’s first-round pick this year if it lands outside the top eight, which it should have a higher probability of doing now that Washington is adding a four-time All-Star to the mix.
Here’s the cold, hard, unabashed truth of the matter, though: It’s not happening.
And not only that, but the value of that Wizards pick might actually be worse for wear following their acquisition of Young.
The odds of the Wizards giving away their first-round are actually nil
If the season ended today, Washington would have the NBA’s fourth-best lottery odds. In Knicks’ terms, this means the Wizards would have a…100 percent chance of keeping their pick. The furthest you can fall from the No. 4 lottery spot is eighth overall.
For New York to even have a puncher’s chance of getting that first-rounder, Washington must finish no worse than 26th overall in the standings. And even then, the Knicks would have just a 0.6 percent chance of picking up an extra first-rounder.
These odds increase if the Wizards climb up the standings. Just three losses separate them from ninth in the lottery order. If acquiring Trae prompts a second-half surge to this spot, it would arm the Knicks with around an 80 percent chance of netting the first-rounder.
Yet, expecting Washington to meaningfully ascend up the Association’s pecking order is a fool’s errand. Though acquiring an All-Star should be a big deal, it’s not like the Atlanta Hawks were setting the world ablaze with Young. And that’s a team with a clear co-star in Jalen Johnson. None of Washington’s players are even close to his level. Also: It seems there's a chance Young either doesn't play or barely plays for the rest of this year.
Clinging to “Hey, you never know!” possibilities is perfectly fine on the surface. And hey! You technically never know. But for argument’s sake, let’s say the Wizards continue rattling off victories. There is no way the front office allows the first-round pick to billow in the wind. They will trade or shut down whomever they they need to if it means securing at least one more prominent bite at the lottery apple.
The Knicks may actually see the value of the Wizards pick decline
There is an element of “no harm, no foul” at play here. The Knicks were not counting on this pick to convey. They have likely always operated under the assumption it would turn into the Wizards’ 2026 and 2027 second-rounders. And given how bad Washington has been, those selections could be useful assets.
They may now also be less valuable.
Washington with Young could feasibly get better this season while avoiding any real risk of conveying its first to New York. For instance, let’s say the Wizards finish sixth in the lottery order. There would be a sub-4 percent chance that they send a first to the Knicks. Meanwhile, because the second-round unfolds in reverse order of winning percentage, they’d be shipping New York the No. 36 pick as opposed to Nos. 31 through 34.
That isn’t a huge difference on its face. But it matters. And it matters even more when looking at 2027.
Prior to the Young trade, you could easily talk yourself into the Knicks receiving two second-rounders from the Wizards that landed in the early 30s. This is a lot harder to do now. Even if Young doesn’t resume his All-NBA arc, he stands to make Washington better.
More than that, his arrival suggests the front office might be angling toward major improvements. And it’ll still have more than $45 million in cap space next summer with which to do it.
So while there is a non-zero chance Trae-to-Washington helps the Knicks scoop up an extra first-rounder, it is far more likely this deal ends up with them receiving two second-rounders lower in value than they were initially expecting—if not counting on.