It has been over 40 years since a team successfully overcame a 3-1 series deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals. If what we've watched these past four games is any indication, the New York Knicks have no hope of becoming the first squad to buck that trend since the 1981 Boston Celtics.
What we’re seeing now from these Knicks, on the heels of a 130-121 loss to the Indiana Pacers in Game 4, is not just a playoff collapse. It is an indictment of the roster construction, and the organization’s overarching direction.
Above all, though, it is proof that these Knicks, these all-in Knicks, are stuck—not just doomed to lose this series, but likely incapable of being any better than this moving forward.
Indiana is exposing everything wrong with the Knicks
The Pacers have exposed so much about this Knicks squad that it’s overwhelming to think about. It’s the brain-fart turnovers. And the inability to handle defensive pressure. It’s the transition defense. It’s a star duo, in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, that seems better off separately than together. The supposed-to-be vaunted starting lineup is a flop, and often worse than that.
New York’s offensive process is too prone to breaking, to aimlessness, to underachieving relative to the names on paper. Every team has their peaks and valleys, but the contrast between the Knicks’ ceiling moments and rock-bottom stretches is starker than most. The top of the roster oozes talent, yet is somehow wildly uneven.
Mikal Bridges might be the best barometer for the inconsistency. Both his offense and defense are wildly up-and-down. It is clear that neither he nor Towns nor anyone else on the roster is fit to be a genuine No. 2 option.
This says nothing of the depth–or lack of it. Bad Josh Hart games shouldn’t break you. A real contender wouldn’t need Mitchell Robinson to be its second- or third-most impactful player to be at its very best. An actual threat to win it all wouldn’t leave their fans bemoaning the usage of Deuce McBride.
Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a convenient scapegoat for the Knicks ending up here, on the brink of elimination. He deserves a ton of criticism. But blaming him entirely suggests New York is good enough to beat the Pacers, and to win it all. It’s not. And what comes next, after the Knicks inevitably lose to the Pacers, is terrifying.
The Knicks do not have the flexibility to noticeably improve this offseason
The one silver lining of New York going out with a relative whimper versus Indiana is that it should spur brutally honest self-reflection over the offseason, and then the change that comes with it. This presupposes the Knicks can change, that they have the tools to get better.
They don’t.
Banking on internal improvement is futile. New York has no blue-chip prospect hiding in plain sight. Every central part of this core is effectively maxed out. You can point to a coaching change making all the difference, but if you’re going to do that, please point toward the clear-cut upgrade over Thibs who will transform this exact roster.
The Knicks do not have the flexibility to make significant changes without conceding players they’re not built to survive without. They cannot trade a single outright first-round pick following the Mikal Bridges deal. Their best spending tool to add talent will be the $5.7 million mini mid-level exception. It’s cool to imagine them using it to sign someone like Al Horford or Nickeil Alexander-Walker. It’s also a pipe dream.
Good luck constructing realistic trades that make the Knicks better, too. They’re not upgrading their position by shipping out Brunson, Anunoby, or Bridges. We can probably say the same about Robinson, as well. Hart’s standalone value will be minimal, as a useful-but-limiting player.
Turning Towns into multiple rotation pieces is probably the Knicks’ best crack at productive change. But teams won’t be breaking down the door to unload their asset clips for a Jekyll-and-Hyde big man owed $171.2 million over the next three years. Even if they do, New York can’t hope to fill all of its biggest voids. It needs another big, in addition to better point-of-attack defense and a No. 2 option.
These Knicks, in all likelihood, are stuck. Never say never, of course. The NBA transaction cycle is nothing if not open-ended. The Knicks are not. They mortgaged it all for a team that’s not good enough, with no obvious path towards changing that. Their present is now paying for it. Chances are their future will, too.