Ever since falling into a 3-1 series hole, the odds of reaching the NBA Finals have been stacked against the Knicks. No team has come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals in 40 years for a reason, it is really difficult to win three straight games against a good team. Now down 3-2 in the series, the Knicks' path just got even more difficult, due to their bad fouling habits and the NBA announcing that Tony Brothers and Tyler Ford will be the referees for Game 6.
Now, I want to be clear up front, this is not suggesting that Brothers or Ford are biased in any way, or that they will call the game differently for the Knicks than they will for the Pacers. That would be silly and in bad faith.
The only reason that the referee duo of Brothers and Ford should alarm Knicks fans is that the pair tends to call more fouls than the average referee in the NBA. The reason that should be alarming is that the Knicks, specifically their two best players, have a tendency to pick up lots of fouls.
Expect a lot of whistles
Knicks fans should expect a lot of whistles in Game 6. According to an analysis from Owen Philips of the F5 Substack, Brothers calls about 1.73 more fouls per game than the average NBA referee, which ranks third-most among any referee. Ford, on the other hand, sits at number five on the list, with about 1.63 more fouls called than average per game.
Fans may remember, back in Game 5 of the Knicks' second-round matchup with the Boston Celtics, Jalen Brown was called for five fouls in the third quarter alone, before eventually fouling out. Brothers called two of those five fouls.
Brunson and Towns must avoid foul trouble
Since that Game 5 against Boston, Brunson has picked up five fouls in two separate games. He has avoided fouling out in any other game, but will need to be extra cautious in Game 6.
The other Knicks player who will need to be on his best behaviour is Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has a history of getting into foul trouble. In the regular season, he spent 65 different quarters in foul trouble, the second-most of any player in the league. He has picked up 14 personal fouls over the previous three games, being forced to the bench on multiple occasions.
Brunson and Towns are simply too important to the Knicks to miss time due to foul trouble. They will need to be extra disciplined tonight in order for the Knicks to escape Indiana with a win.