In a move that would placate pundits and fans alike, the New York Knicks may be on track to start Mitchell Robinson at center. The thing is, despite so many clamoring for him to take the opening tip, making this adjustment could blow up in the team’s face—not just this year, but next summer, too.
This might be tough for Robinson to hear. He made it crystal clear that he’d prefer to start for the Knicks years ago, and then held the title for some time. The Karl-Anthony Towns trade combined with offseason ankle surgery relegated back to the bench last season. He then received four straight starts to close out the postseason. The job may now be his to lose entering training camp.
Whether that’s the right call remains to be seen.
The Knicks offense could get worse
Inserting Robinson into the starting five would be a defense-first decision that flies in the face of why the Knicks traded for Towns. It would likewise say just as much about how they feel towards him, and his capacity to play center for more than small-to-moderate stretches.
This is not a pitfall New York can afford to ignore. Its offense is supposed to be a five-out nightmare for opposing defenses. It just hired Mike Brown as head coach in large part because he’s more of an offensive innovator than Tom Thibodeau.
Starting Robinson runs counter to that vision. Though the sample size is small, the Knicks shot just 33.3 percent from distance last year when Robinson played with Towns, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Anunoby. That is noticeably worse than lineups with Josh Hart (35.2 percent on threes) and Deuce McBride (47.2 percent on threes).
Leaning into double-bigs didn’t give New York more of a presence at the basket, either. Even when factoring in the offensive-rebounding bump, the Knicks’ rim frequency with Hart (32.7 percent) and McBride (29.4 percent) alongside the other four starters was either higher than or around the same as when Robinson rounded out the lineup (29.8 percent).
On top of that, the defensive returns were far from evidence that Robinson should begin games. The Mitch-plus-starters group posted a defensive rating that would’ve ranked in the bottom three, while barely outscoring its opponents.
Robinson could be more expensive to re-sign if he starts
Small-sample caveats are the antidotes to all of these concerns. The would-be starting five with Robinson played all of 67 minutes last season. The defense was much better overall in all of the reps he logged with Towns.
Still, even if starting Robinson works out, it could be a double-edged sword.
The Knicks have shown little inclination to extend him over the offseason. As of now, that appears to be the right move. His availability issues are well-documented, and they have to meticulously manage their payroll following investments in other core members. But if Robinson has a career season as a key cog in the starting lineup, it’s only going to make him more expensive to re-sign in free agency next summer.
This isn’t a huge deal if the Knicks view him as an inevitable goner. Then again, if that’s the case, investing a starter’s role in someone they plan to let walk or trade doesn’t make much sense.
When you consider all of the implications, both financially and functionally, the answer to New York’s dilemma becomes painfully obvious: Starting Robinson may not be in the best interests of the team after all.