Jalen Duren’s return to the Detroit Pistons was initially considered a formality. But his refusal to sign for their latest $200 million offer has turned an already-fragile situation into one that could end with the New York Knicks watching a should-be rival fall apart at the seams.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported on Monday that Detroit’s offer to Duren has climbed to five years and $200 million. The fact that he hasn’t signed this and is instead considering just taking his qualifying offer amounts to a five-alarm fire.
Duren’s QO is worth $9.6 million. If he takes that, plays out next season, and leaves to sign a max deal with another team, the contract projects to be worth $189.2 million over four years. Including the qualifying offer, this would bring his five-year earnings to $198.9 million. That’s $2 million less than Detroit is guaranteeing him right now.
Something beyond money is clearly off here. And the Knicks could benefit regardless of what happens next.
Every ending to the Duren-Pistons saga is good news for the Knicks
Let’s say Duren continues to hold out. That could force the Pistons to explore sign-and-trade scenarios, in which case their center rotation almost certainly becomes weaker. (They already traded Isaiah Stewart.) That’s a W for the Knicks.
Duren could also just accept his qualifying offer. That’s the worst-case scenario for the Pistons. Not only would they be facing the prospect of Duren reaching unrestricted free agency next summer, but his future would become a huge distraction casting a pall over Detroit’s season. That’s another win for the Knicks.
The most likely scenario remains that Duren and the Pistons come to some sort of agreement. While that puts an end to the current saga, it paves the way for a new one.
First and foremost: Hurt feelings matter. If negotiations between Duren and Detroit are really that contentious, the tension will linger long after the ink dries on his deal.
Then, there is the contract itself. If Duren is making around $40 million per year, the Pistons will be paying out over $120 million by 2027-28 to him, Cade Cunningham, and Ausar Thompson.
Having more than two-thirds of the salary cap committed to three players, only one of whom is considered a true star, can make it harder to meaningfully improve. The Pistons have picks to trade, and won’t be as concerned about spending power as the Knicks. But they will have locked themselves into a three-man core that nearly got daddied in the playoffs by the Orlando Magic.
In other words: Point, New York.
Though the Pistons could still give the reigning champs fits with their physicality and disruption, their relatively low-key offseason already felt underwhelming. Add in a messier-than-expected Duren negotiation that continues to worsen, and New York has all the confirmation it needs: Detroit is no longer a primary threat to the Knicks’ Eastern Conference reign—insofar as it ever was.
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