After looking like he could barely walk by the end of the Philadelphia 76ers’ Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics, Joel Embiid is officially listed as “probable” for Game 1 against the New York Knicks. We all know what that means: Karl-Anthony Towns is about to be guarded predominantly by Sixers wings—a shift that, for so long, has been his kryptonite.
Except now, on the heels of his play against the Atlanta Hawks, this may no longer be the case.
For the Knicks’ sake, they better hope that’s true.
Yes, the Sixers are going to spam smalls against Karl-Anthony Towns
Anyone who watched even a fraction of the Sixers-Celtics series knows that Embiid remains highly impactful, and also that he’s not moving close to 100 percent at the defensive end. There were moments against Boston, even when he was detonating on offense, when you wondered whether Philly’s defense would be better off without his limited mobility.
Playing him in anything other than traditional drop coverage feels like a risk, if not self-sabotage. He moved so gingerly by the end of Game 7, limping and everything, there was a real question whether he’d be ready to rock for this matchup.
Though he is listed as probable with a hip contusion rather than a leg injury, the reality of his situation doesn’t change. The Sixers will put him on Josh Hart in hopes of letting him roam closer to the basket. Heck, this would have been their default for most possessions even if Embiid were a portrait of perfect health.
That leaves KAT to be defended by Paul George or Kelly Oubre Jr. While this theoretically gives the Knicks a ready-made mismatch, it’s a defensive look they’ve struggled to capitalize on time and again. The offense gravitates toward using Hart as a screener in these situations, which can relegate KAT to bystander duty.
The Knicks may have already solved their KAT issue
To the Knicks’ credit, though, they seemed to get better at handling smalls-on-KAT situations later in the season. They ran more off-ball actions that forced teams to switch bigs back onto Towns, and then ran him through the two-man game with Jalen Brunson.
Even more recently, they have started using KAT as a playmaking hub. That's part of why his stock is surging. This approach activates him on offense no matter the matchup, while counting on Brunson to generate more movement and gravity away from the rock.
Granted, Atlanta wasn’t the ideal first-round opponent to prepare the Knicks for what the Sixers will do. It preferred to keep Onyeka Okongwu on Towns.
Still, the Hawks experimented plenty with non-centers on KAT. And when they did, New York was…successful! The offense averaged roughly 1.29 points per possession whenever anyone other than Okongwu, Mo Gueye, or Tony Bradley registered as the defender on Towns.
For context, the league’s average playoff offense is putting up around 1.12 points per possession. The contrast to New York is even starker when considering how many of the KAT-versus-non-center plays came in the half-court. The average half-court offense is scoring under 0.95 points per possession.
Does this mean the Knicks have officially solved their most glaring KAT problem? We don’t know. Not yet anyway. For better or bare, that’ll change by the end of their rendezvous with Embiid and the Sixers.
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