You can’t talk about Karl-Anthony Towns’ future without mentioning the second apron, or James Dolan’s refusal to enter it for reasons that don’t add up. But while both factors are convenient scapegoats, another reason for this extension standoff looms just as large.
The New York Knicks don’t want to become the latest team to hand out a superstar contract that ages poorly.
New York has reportedly held firm at offers in the range of $45 million to $50 million per year. This isn’t just a price point that reflects Dolan’s potentially detrimental aversion to entering the second apron. It’s one that suggests the Knicks aren’t content to re-sign KAT, and incur collateral damage in the middle, if not near the top, of the rotation.
More importantly, it’s a price range that shows the front office is monitoring how badly other deals have aged.
Mega contracts for NBA players over 30 aren’t exactly aging well
Here’s every player aged 30 or older making more than $45 million this season: Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Giannis, Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, Zach LaVine, Pascal Siakam, Domantas Sabonis, and KAT himself.
Of these 15 names, only five have what could be considered net-positive trade value: Jokic, Curry, Giannis, Siakam, and KAT. You can loop Kawhi in here as well, but he’s already injured. Jaylen Brown has a case, but the Boston Celtics just traded him for a return that can only be described as modest.
Donovan Mitchell would’ve made the cut a few months ago. Except then he went and signed a four-year, $276 million extension that’s already considered one of the league’s toughest-to-move deals.
Not all players age in a vacuum. Signature skills like Towns’ floor-spacing tend to hold up. But he also plays the league’s most physical position, at a time when teams are scared to have two near-max stars in general, regardless of their age. (See: The Celtics of Boston.)
To be even more brutally honest, plenty of teams probably wouldn’t want to touch Curry’s extension (two years, $116 million). Even more may not want any part of Giannis’ next contract. (He can sign for four years and $276 million beginning January 6.) Ditto for the five-year, $357.3 million max deal Jokic is positioned to sign over the 2027 offseason.
The Knicks may not change a thing if the second apron didn’t exist
Lost amid the team’s terminal case of being owned by Dolan is the fact that the Knicks probably wouldn’t have increased their offer to KAT even if the second apron didn’t exist. The Big Kazoo might be forcing them to skirt (overstated) restrictions, but this front office is never only thinking a year or two down the line. They are always laser focused on both the short- and long-term games.
In the short term, paying Towns whatever he wants to stick around and then futzing and fiddling on the margins makes sense. He is a superstar. That isn’t changing over the next year or two.
The Knicks have no such assurances beyond that.
If they sign KAT to a four-year deal, they’ll be on the hook to pay him through his age-35 season. The crop of players currently that old and worth the money New York has already offered Towns isn’t especially long. Unless you’re prepared to argue in favor of Kawhi or Kevin Durant, the list is populated exclusively by Steph Curry.
KAT’s future is just as much about the reality of aging stars as it is any second-apron mandate. The Knicks aren’t trying to fleece him. They’re attempting to protect themselves against disaster in the back half of his next contract.
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