You wouldn’t necessarily predict it by looking at the names on the roster. You wouldn’t presume it when seeing the regular-season rankings. And you certainly wouldn’t know it considering how much focus is dedicated to their defense, and its shortcomings. But the reality is, the New York Knicks offense is a colossal underachiever.
And if they don’t want to bow out against the Boston Celtics, they need to finally do something about it.
That something is pretty obvious, too. It may be deemed nuclear this late into the season. It definitely goes against the Church of Tom Thibodeau. But it is nevertheless necessary, perhaps even long overdue.
It’s time to change the starting lineup.
The starting five's offense is a major problem
The Knicks finished the regular season fifth in offensive efficiency, an objectively elite ranking. Still, they were overwhelmingly average during the second half of the schedule, and even at their best, they lacked a certain consistency—a process worthy of getting the benefit of the doubt.
This issue is coming back to haunt them now. Among the 16 teams to make the playoffs, the Knicks are 13th in points scored per possession. And they are dead last among the eight squads who made it to the second round.
New York’s starting five of Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart is part of the problem. This group is averaging under 1.05 points per possession, noticeably worse than the 1.18 it churned out during the regular season.
Things are getting even worse to open the Celtics series. Through three games, the Knicks’ primary fivesome is averaging 0.90 points per possession—by far and away the worst mark out of the 21 lineups leaguewide to total at least 10 minutes during the semifinals.
So yes, it’s time for a shakeup—past time, perhaps. And much like the issue itself, the solution is fairly obvious.
Josh Hart needs to come off the bench
Josh Hart is not the sole force steering the Knicks offense into disastrous waters. More prominent players around him aren’t holding up their end of the bargain, and his on-off splits for the playoffs suggest New York cannot afford to be without him.
Yet, two things can be true at once. The Knicks need Josh Hart, and they need him to come off the bench.
Boston’s defense has completely disregarded Hart on the offensive end, just like it did during the regular season, and just as the Detroit Pistons did last series. He has occasionally capitalized on the approach with cuts, offensive rebounds, and even some threes.
It’s not enough. Teams don’t care if he’s hitting jumpers or crashing the offensive glass, generally because it means any of the Knicks’ other headlining weapons are not. Hart gives the Celtics a place to stash either of their bigs, and gives any of his defenders freedom to roam, clog up the works in the lane, and aggressively pressure the ball, along with other players’ jumpers.
To that end, New York sees its effective field-goal percentage—which measures two- and three-point efficiency—plunge by eight points with Hart on the floor. Mind you, he isn’t the only starter posing this issue. But the Celtics defend him differently than they do everyone else, impacting the offensive attack in ways that cannot be solved by simply hitting the “play better” button.
The Knicks have multiple solutions worth trying
The Knicks can go one of two ways if they move Hart to the bench: replace him with Deuce McBride, or sub in Mitchell Robinson.
McBride is the more intuitive answer. He preserves, if not improves, New York’s five-out spacing. His shot hasn’t fallen as consistently since dealing with a knee issue, but he incites more reaction from defenses than Hart as a standstill shooter.
Thibs has not leaned on this look often. And the results have not been great when he does. This quintet has played fewer than five total minutes across five appearances, and is posting a bottom-shelf offensive rating. That isn’t a large enough sample, though, to declare the lineup doomed. It is worth further exploration.
Failing that, the Knicks should look at using Robinson in Hart’s stead. That runs counter to five-out spacing, but it can glitz up the team’s presence on the offensive glass, which needs to be an even larger element of its attack so long as the first-shot offense is dwelling inside the gutter.
This also lets New York stress test the viability of its dual-big look. The Knicks have outscored the Celtics by 25 points in the 25 minutes Towns and Robinson have logged together.
Granted, playing those two at once is not without risk. Precious Achiuwa will see more court time if one or both of them get into foul trouble. Towns will also have to better adjust his shot diet if soaking up more reps alongside Mitch.
That’s okay, The payoff is potentially huge relative to what we’ve seen so far—especially with Kristaps Porzingis clearly still laboring through an illness. What’s more, if you play Robinson from the outset, and Boston continues its Maul-A-Mitch strategy, you can pull him once it gets into the penalty, at which time you get to face a tilted defense afraid of sending you to the free-throw line.
None of this is guaranteed to work as intended, and the Knicks shouldn’t panic when they hold a 2-1 series advantage. But bringing Hart off the bench isn’t akin to panicking. Nor should it be considered a nuclear option. It is simply the Knicks leaning into what might be working—and, more importantly, drifting away from what’s decidedly not.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.