Josh Hart is incredibly valuable to the New York Knicks.
Let’s get that out of the way right now. He is a pace-setter, an emotional North Star, and probably their second-best passer. Against the Detroit Pistons in the first round, despite all his flaws, Hart also turned in the Knicks’ best on-off rating. They need him.
Unfortunately, that is part of the issue as they prepare to square off versus the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Hart is a liability in this series because of how Beantown has always defended him. It is on the Knicks—specifically, head coach Tom Thibodeau—to find a workaround, an alternative, or a general solution. If they don’t, pulling off the upset against the reigning champs is out of the question.
The Celtics will keep defending Josh Hart with their bigs
Opposing teams having bigs guard Hart is nothing he and the Knicks haven’t seen before. Even those who don’t usually rely on it eventually resort to it. After having Tim Hardaway Jr. defend Hart during regular-season matchups, the Pistons put Jalen Duren, their starting center, on him for most of Round 1.
New York found ways to win that matchup on occasion, and Hart himself did just fine. But the offense overall still averaged just 1.04 points per possession when Duren guarded the Thibodeau favorite. For reference, the Knicks put up closer to 1.20 points per possession in the regular season, and the league's average offense in the playoffs so far is churning out 1.14 points per possession.
This dilemma only gets more complicated against Boston. Head coach Joe Mazzulla predominantly uses Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford to defend Hart. Most of the time, the results are pretty for New York.
When Porzingis guarded Hart this year, the Knicks offense averaged 0.98 points per possession. When Horford was on him, this number dropped to 0.92 points per possession. And again, New York's regular-season average was around 1.20 points per possession, so we're talking about a huge difference.
Can the Knicks find a solution to their Josh Hart dilemma?
Most proposed resolutions for the Knicks entail lowering Hart's minutes. Deuce McBride would take his place, which theoretically disallows Horford or Porzingis from roaming off him. Failing that, New York could lean into dual-big minutes with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. This won't jazz up the offense, aside from juicing second-chance opportunities. But it does allow the Knicks to try replicating the blueprint to beat Boston that the Orlando Magic laid out in Round 1.
Both courses of action have their flaws. McBride is not shooting nearly well enough to ensure the Celtics won't defend him as successfully as they have Hart. Robinson, meanwhile, doesn't look like he can play more than 20 minutes per game at the moment. His defensive impact is also predicated on Thibodeau giving the green light for more aggressive coverages. Plus, as mentioned above, there will be an offensive trade-off. Unlike Hart, Robinson is a total non-spacer, with cinderblocks for hands.
Landry Shamet could be a dark-horse option, since he's a higher-volume and more efficient threat from beyond the arc. But while he tries on defense, he will be at a physical disadvantage versus pretty much any one of the Celtics' perimeter players.
Constructing different lineups and rotations also presupposes that Thibodeau is prepared to go away from Hart. We know that's not the case. Hart is going to play a ton unless he's in foul trouble.
Josh Hart is actually the solution to the Josh Hart problem
Knowing that Hart's spot in the rotation is beyond secure, he will be charged with fixing an issue he helps create. This will mandate a number of different things from him, but two stand out above all else.
First and foremost: He has to let it rip. Hart shot 50 percent from three-point range in the Pistons series, but he fired up just 14 total triples. That's well south of three attempts per game. His volume was even lower in the regular season against Boston. Through four matchups, he attempted nine total treys, and made only one of them. That comes out to an 11.1 percent clip, folks.
Shying away from the three-ball won't fly against the Celtics. They are going to concede wide-open looks to him every game. He has to take them, a lot, even if he believes the driving lane is open.
Truth be told, this in itself will not be a panacea. Hart could shoot 7-of-10 from behind the rainbow each game, and the Celtics won't care. They will live with the consequences. Even if they're compelled to change things up and guard him more aggressively, Mazzulla probably won't make that alteration for a few games. And so long as bigs are roaming off Hart, it makes life harder for everyone else on the floor attempting to attack. That includes real-life superhero Jalen Brunson.
This necessitates the use of Hart as a screener. Generally speaking, the Knicks have not been shy about going to this action. The issue is that if he's screening, it means that Karl-Anthony Towns is not, which in turn means the Brunson-KAT 1-5 pick-and-roll falls by the wayside.
Working out this wrinkle may prove impossible. The Knicks could try running Hart-KAT pick-and-rolls if the latter is being guarded by a small, something the Celtics have been known to do. They could also try to set more screens for Hart away from the ball, and hope that results in more favorable pressure points for subsequent pick-and-rolls.
Trying everything and anything is likely a necessity. Futzing with Hart's minutes, trying different lineups imploring him to dramatically increase his three-point volume, having him initiate more pick-and-rolls instead of just screening—it all has to be on the table. After all, the only thing we know for sure is that the Knicks have a Josh Hart problem. It's the solution to it that remains a mystery.
Dan Favale is a Senior NBA Contributor for FanSided and National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.