Mitchell Robinson is someone the New York Knicks plan to load manage throughout the regular season, a strategy that is equal parts necessary and smart but shines the spotlight on an uncomfortable reality: He may not be long for The Mecca.
The 27-year-old is extension eligible entering the final season of his contract. Pretty much nobody expects him to get one. The Knicks want as much flexibility as possible given their expensive payroll, and extending Robinson would prevent him from being in trade talks ahead of the February 5 deadline unless he signs an ultra-cheap deal.
Still, this is not just about preserving his expiring contract for midseason moves. If it were, we would hear more chatter about the Knicks extending him after the trade deadline, rather than letting him reach unrestricted free agency over the summer.
The absence of those murmurings, at least so far, speaks to how much New York doesn’t know about its big man. Yes, he is important. The playoffs proved as much. And sure, he’s about to be promoted to the default starter. But all of this must be couched with the “when healthy” caveat. While that’s standard fare when projecting forward, in this case, it’s more than an afterthought cliche.
Robinson’s availability is already in question
Health is perhaps the least dependable aspect of Robinson’s value. He missed all but 17 regular-season games last season while recovering from ankle surgery—sparse availability that represents the continuation of a trend.
Over the past five years, out of a possible 400 regular-season games, Robinson has appeared in 210 of them. That comes out to 52.5 percent, which is barely half of the team’s matchups.
This uncertainty isn’t going anywhere in 2025-26. Robinson missed two of the Knicks’ preseason games with what the team termed load management, and there’s a chance he won’t be suiting up on opening night:
Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson did not go through Knicks practice today. Brown says he's unsure about their availability for the opener vs. Cleveland but reiterates that it's next man up. Robinson is having his workload managed workload. Hart is progressing.
— Kristian Winfield (@Krisplashed) October 20, 2025
Reinvesting in this kind of wild-card availability is risky no matter the circumstances. It is particularly high-stakes for a New York squad that will be within $16.5 million of the second apron before factoring in a new deal for Robinson.
Keep Robinson will vault the Knicks into the second apron
Even more complicated, the financial projection doesn’t account for a full roster. The Knicks’ 2026-27 payroll includes nine guaranteed contracts, and that’s assuming Guerschon Yabusele exercises his player option. They will at the very least need to nudge that number up to 14.
For argument’s sake, let’s say they go ahead and fill out four of those final five slots with rookie minimums. That would leave the Knicks within roughly $11 million of the second apron. If Robinson isn’t commanding more than that, something has gone terribly wrong.
To be sure, entering the second apron is not entirely taboo. The roster-building restrictions are real, but the long-term implications are nonexistent if you don’t spend too many seasons above the threshold.
The real question for the Knicks is whether they want to subject themselves to the logistical handcuffs that come with re-signing Robinson. We know he’s good enough to be worth it. Nobody, though, knows if he can be available enough.