For so long, it has seemed like the New York Knicks would not render a final verdict on Mitchell Robinson’s future by the trade deadline. They won’t extend him, but they won’t move him, either. They will instead let his situation ride into free agency this summer, and figure everything out then.
As it turns out, though, the Knicks may not have that luxury.
Figuring everything out later rests on the notion that Robinson will not have an aggressive batch of suitors on the open market. This is a reasonable assumption to make. Robinson’s availability is forever in question, and the way teams value non-stars at virtually every position continues to shift in a not-so-player-friendly direction.
Still, it only takes one admirer to come over the top with an offer for New York’s 27-year-old big man. And when you take a deeper look at this summer’s center market, Robinson may actually have more than one suitor prepared to do exactly that.
Stefan Bondy of the New York Post recently spoke with multiple agents, as well as ESPN’s Bobby Marks, about Robinson’s potential market value. While some painted a picture of inevitable affordability, two others raised the possibility of him getting “2-3 years at $20 million per,” or even a one-season balloon payment worth more than that.
Mitchell Robinson could end up being the best available center
Despite his clear impact on the glass and defensive end, Robinson shouldn’t be in the ballpark of $20 million or more per year. Not only is the availability an issue, but there’s a clear cap on the number of minutes he can play when suiting up.
Every prospective suitor will be aware of the risks—of the red flags. That should bode well for the Knicks. Especially when you look at how many other quality centers are available.
Then again, are there that many other quality centers who are actually available?
Jalen Duren and Walker Kessler are better investments. They are also restricted free agents. The Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz, respectively, can match any pitch they receive. Poaching RFAs is so rare these days that interested parties seldom tender offer sheets anymore.
After them, you have Isaiah Hartenstein. He will be more appealing than Robinson to most. But the Oklahoma City Thunder have a club option on him for 2026-27. Even if they don’t want to pay him $28.5 million, they could decline the option, and negotiate a cheaper deal.
The value of other bigs relative to Robinson lies in the eye of the beholder. Many of them, though, may not even sniff the open market. Deandre Ayton (player option), Day’Ron Sharpe (team option), Brook Lopez (team option), and Al Horford (player option) may avoid free agency altogether.
Robert Williams III and Nikola Vucevic could draw more interest than Robinson. Emphasis on could. Neither is guaranteed to do so. Vooch turns 36 in October, and is a defensive liability. RW3’s health bill isn’t any spiffier than Robinson’s own.
Kristaps Porzingis is a clear upgrade in theory. He’s also logged fewer minutes than Robinson this season. Perhaps Mark Williams has played his way into the cut-above-Mitch conversation. That’s debatable, but it might not matter. He’s an RFA himself.
Don’t rule out the Knicks trading Mitchell Robinson
This is all to say, we shouldn’t discount the prospect of New York flipping Robinson by the February 5 deadline. It is unlikely, to be sure, but far from out of the question.
Past actions from this Knicks’ front office prove as much. They aren’t in the business of letting flight risks they value reach free agency. They extend them, or move them.
Robinson’s current contract is among the few exceptions. They let him hit restricted free agency before (shrewdly) signing him to a four-year, $60 million deal that declined in average annual salary. But they wouldn’t have done that if they thought he was a genuine flight risk.
Perhaps that’s how this all ends again: with the Knicks counting on Robinson’s scattershot availability to repress his market value. That will certainly be the intention if they keep him past the deadline.
For a Leon Rose-led front office always thinking multiple steps ahead, though, they’ll have a better grasp of the risks, or lack thereof, than us. If they have any inkling that Robinson could net a deal they’re not prepared to bankroll, chances are he’ll be moved before getting the opportunity to leave.