The Milwaukee Bucks just stunned the entire NBA by waiving and stretching Damian Lillard, and then signing Myles Turner. And the New York Knicks should be glad that they did, because this degree of risk-taking from the Bucks increases the likelihood that Giannis Antetokounmpo eventually ends up on the trade block.
To be sure, Turner’s arrival coupled with everything else Milwaukee has done pretty much guarantees the two-time MVP isn’t going anywhere…this offseason. Giannis has conveyed shock over the Bucks’ transactions, but this isn’t a series of moves the front office makes without knowing he’s prepared to stay put through the 2025-26 campaign.
This by itself is fantastic news for the Knicks. They apparently abstained from entering the Kevin Durant sweepstakes in hopes of swinging a trade for Giannis down the line. That is an ambitious aspiration, fraught with all sorts of technicalities, but New York’s best offer for the 30-year-old megastar dramatically improves next offseason, when it will be able to include more (read: actual) first-round-pick equity in any deal.
The Bucks have zero margin for error with Giannis
Calling the Bucks’ 2025 offseason an all-in gamble would be a massive understatement. A floor-spacing rim-protector like Myles Turner is an ideal fit alongside Giannis, particularly after Brook Lopez got played off the court for stretches during the 2025 playoffs. But Turner himself struggled throughout the postseason, especially when logging time without Tyrese Haliburton.
More importantly, after waiving and stretching Lillard, Milwaukee will have $22.5 million in dead money on its books through 2029-30. That is a massive salary slot to just burn. The Bucks cannot do anything with that cap hit; it cannot be traded, or wiped from the ledger in any way.
Improvements through trades must now be their bread and butter. That doesn’t bode well for them.
As of now, the Bucks can trade either their 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, then offer a swap on the other. They will be able to deal up to three first-round picks next summer—including whoever they select in 2026. That is nothing at which to sneeze. But it would be more intriguing if they didn’t just erase Lillard’s massive expiring contract from the 2026-27 docket. They will now need to use some combination of Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma, or Turner himself as the primary salary-matching contracts in any blockbuster deal.
The Knicks should continue to monitor Giannis’ availability
This is all to say: The Bucks may have locked down Antetokounmpo through 2025-26, but all of these moves may merely delay the inevitable.
Contending for a title next season is probably their best bet at retaining his long-term curiosity. That’s a tall order even after all of these shakeups. The Bucks may be bringing back Portis, Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., and Taurean Prince, but they also won’t have Brook Lopez (now with the Los Angeles Clippers), and were never going to have Lillard. Adding someone like Turner, who isn’t a primary scorer, cannot be considered an upgrade that vaults them into the contender’s circle.
Much like the rest of the league, the Knicks should be waiting to see how this plays out. Everything the Bucks have done could blow up in their face, and increase the chance Giannis requests a trade next summer, while putting New York on his shortlist.
Of course, it’s unclear if this ever happens. And the Knicks still won’t have the glitziest asset stockpile if it does. Yet, while Milwaukee’s recent dice rolls are aimed at retaining Giannis long term, they could also be the catalysts for eventually nudging him out the door.