Though Mitchell Robinson has yet to make his regular-season debut, the New York Knicks already have all the information they need. Even if reluctantly, even if they’re still hoping deep down it isn’t true, they know they can’t afford to keep him past this season.
This a ludicrous conclusion to draw so early into the regular season—particularly when you’re talking about a defensive difference-maker (and offensive rebounder) as impactful as Robinson.
The 27-year-old delivered tantalizing stretch after tantalizing stretch during the Knicks’ Eastern Conference Finals push last season. New York clearly viewed him as the preferred starter alongside Karl-Anthony Towns this year. You don’t just give up on someone that valuable.
That is, unless you have no choice.
Mitchell Robinson may never shed injury-prone label
Missed games are the expectation for Robinson. He has barely played in half of New York’s regular-season tilts over the past half-decade, and the team made it clear he would be load-managed throughout the season.
Except, “throughout the season” has since turned into “to start the season.” Robinson has missed every game so far, with no clear timeline for return. True to form, the Knicks have not provided any clarity on the matter beyond listing him as out for ankle injury management.
This is the mother of all red flags when viewed against Robinson’s track record. It is even more jarring to know it can’t be an overuse issue. The big man didn’t even rack up 45 total minutes during the preseason before entering injury-management mode.
If you needed any more evidence why New York has yet to extend Robinson’s contract, this is it. And at this rate, you shouldn’t expect the Knicks’ stance to change.
Circumstances are currently working against Robinson staying in New York
Robinson always ran the risk of becoming collateral damage of New York’s rising payroll. According to Spotrac, the Knicks will have around $16.3 million in wiggle room next summer beneath the second apron before re-signing their center, and filling out the rest of the roster.
Cannonballing into the second apron is a no-go for certain teams. The Knicks aren’t one of them. This franchise has deep pockets, and second-apron penalties don’t get truly grueling until you spend more than two years inside it.
Teams must nevertheless be deliberate about venturing into the second apron. The immediate restrictions are real, and include not being able to use the mid-level in free agency, or aggregate salaries in trades. You can’t consign yourself to those limitations for just anyone.
For so long, the hope has been Robinson won’t be just anyone. When he’s healthy, that’s absolutely true. But he’s not healthy nearly enough for it to be more than intermittently true.
Paying him beyond this season only leaves the Knicks more vulnerable to what’s happening now. Karl-Anthony Towns is apparently attempting to gut out a Grade 2 quad strain no doubt due to a lack of center depth. Without Robinson, Guerschon Yabusele’s disastrous start looks much worse, and New York finds itself more reliant on Ariel Hukporti, two-way-player Trey Jemison III, and even OG Anunoby-at-the-5 lineups (they’re a thing now!).
Perpetuating this uncertainty is untenable. The Knicks’ margin for error will only shrink as they get more expensive. Barring a sudden and wholesale change in Robinson’s health, they need to start thinking about how they can build a frontcourt rotation without him. Whether it’s easier to do by letting him walk in free agency or trading his expiring contract this season is their call. But it’s a call that, as of now, looks like it needs to be made.