Tyler Nickel’s scorching-hot performance at the Las Vegas Summer League is already inciting victory laps on behalf of the New York Knicks’ front office. Yet, before we wax poetic about how Leon Rose and crew mined a hidden, sweet-shooting gem with the 47th overall pick, we first need to acknowledge a tough-to-stomach truth: three-point efficiency in Sin City doesn’t always translate to the regular season.
On the contrary, if history remains any indication, the correlation between long-range accuracy at summer league and the regular season is pretty darn weak.
This is not meant to take away from Nickel’s performance. Even after a 3-of-11 clunker from downtown in New York’s Vegas finale, the 22-year-old left the Neon Capital of World shooting 41.2 percent on more than nine three-point attempts per game.
That blend of volume and overall efficiency should not—it cannot—be ignored. But only one of these elements traditionally scales to actual NBA games.
The Knicks must take Tyler Nickel’s shooting explosion with a grain of salt
New York doesn’t have to worry about Nickel’s absurd volume from beyond the arc turning out to be a mirage. He uncorked 11.6 three-point attempts per 36 minutes—an astronomical number that would have ranked fourth in the entire league last season among players who logged at least 250 minutes.
Writing for The F5 Substack a few years ago, current Denver Nuggets analytics team member Owen Phillips found that the number of three-point attempts per 36 minutes in summer league has the second-strongest correlation to rookie-year performance among all box-score stats. This effectively means the Knicks can count on Nickel to continue letting ‘em rip from behind the rainbow.
The Vanderbilt alum’s efficiency is another story. Of the 25 statistical categories Phillips analyzed through 2024, three-point percentage ranked 24th in correlation strength, ahead of only plus-minus per 36 minutes.
This doesn’t negate everything Nickel just did. But it’s a reminder New York cannot rely on its second-round newbie to continue flame-throwing outside the more anarchic confines of Las Vegas.
This needs to be part of the Knicks’ Tyler Nickel evaluation
These previous findings are not all bad news for the Knicks. Phillips’ research also shows there is a weak correlation between two-point efficiency in summer league, and rookie-year performance. That is a gigantic silver lining when you consider Nickel shot just 2-of-10 inside the arc.
Still, the 6’7” forward is most coveted for his outside shooting ability. He showed enough in Vegas to leave New York smitten.
Frankly, he probably guaranteed himself a roster spot, too. The Knicks are once again working within thin margins beneath the second apron, and a minimum salary for Nickel allows them to fill space on the depth chart for under $1.4 million.
At the same time, New York knows as much as anyone how important it is to fill the roster with capable depth.
Guaranteeing Nickel a spot as the 15th man is not a decision that should be taken lightly. The Knicks can’t be certain they’ll get much of anything out of Pacome Dadiet, Mohamed Diawara, or even Andre Drummond. Affixing themselves to another wild card, with less experience than anyone, could have ramifications they feel down the line.
Rest assured, Nickel showed enough in Vegas to be in the mix. Reading too much into his three-point shooting, though, could come back to bite the Knicks.
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